This paper tests the hypothesis that the classifications "unemployed" and "out of the labor force" are behaviorally meaningless distinctions. This hypothesis is rejected. Distinct behavioral equations govern transitions from out of the labor force to employment and from unemployment to employment. The evidence reported in this paper is broadly consistent with versions of search theory in which unemployment is a state that facilitates the job search process. In an Appendix, we demonstrate that log concavity of the wage-offer distribution implies that the exit rate from unemployment is an increasing function of the rate of arrival of job offers.

Previous research has documented a negative relation between common stock returns and inflation. Recently, Fama 3 and Geske and Roll 6 have argued that this relation results from a more fundamental one between real activity and expected inflation. Stock returns, they argue, signal changes in real activity, which in turn affect expected inflation. However, unlike Fama, Geske and Roll argue that changes in real activity result in changes in money supply growth, which in turn affect expected inflation. Empirical tests have analyzed separately each link in the proposed causal chain. In this article, we investigate simultaneously the relations among stock returns, real activity, inflation, and money supply changes using a vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model. Our empirical results strongly support Geske and Roll's reversed causality model.