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Asymmetric Information and Learning: Evidence from the Automobile Insurance Market

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005 87(2), 197-207
This paper tests the predictions of adverse-selection models using data from the automobile insurance market. I find that, in contrast to what recent research suggests, the evidence is consistent with the presence of informational asymmetries in this market: new customers choosing higher insurance coverage are associated with more accidents. Consistent with the possibility of policyholders' learning about their risk type, such a coverage-accidents correlation exists only for policyholders with enough years of driving experience. The informational advantage that new customers with driving experience have over the insurer appears to arise in part from customers' underreporting their past claim history: policyholders switching to new insurers are disproportionately ones with a poor claims history, and new customers tend to underreport their past claims history when joining a new insurer.

The costs of entrenched boards

Journal of Financial Economics 2005 78(2), 409-433
This paper investigates empirically how the value of publicly traded firms is affected by arrangements that protect management from removal. Staggered boards, which a majority of U.S. public companies have, substantially insulate boards from removal in either a hostile takeover or a proxy contest. We find that staggered boards are associated with an economically meaningful reduction in firm value (as measured by Tobin's Q). We also provide suggestive evidence that staggered boards bring about, and not merely reflect, a reduced firm value. Finally, we show that the correlation with reduced firm value is stronger for staggered boards that are established in the corporate charter (which shareholders cannot amend) than for staggered boards established in the company's bylaws (which shareholders can amend).

Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2005 120(2), 639-668
Modigliani and Cohn hypothesize that the stock market suffers from money illusion, discounting real cash flows at nominal discount rates. While previous research has focused on the pricing of the aggregate stock market relative to Treasury bills, the money-illusion hypothesis also has implications for the pricing of risky stocks relative to safe stocks. Simultaneously examining the pricing of Treasury bills, safe stocks, and risky stocks allows us to distinguish money illusion from any change in the attitudes of investors toward risk. Our empirical results support the hypothesis that the stock market suffers from money illusion.

Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2005 120(2), 639-668
Modigliani and Cohn hypothesize that the stock market suffers from money illusion, discounting real cash flows at nominal discount rates. While previous research has focused on the pricing of the aggregate stock market relative to Treasury bills, the money-illusion hypothesis also has implications for the pricing of risky stocks relative to safe stocks. Simultaneously examining the pricing of Treasury bills, safe stocks, and risky stocks allows us to distinguish money illusion from any change in the attitudes of investors toward risk. Our empirical results support the hypothesis that the stock market suffers from money illusion.

Judging Fund Managers by the Company They Keep

Journal of Finance 2005 60(3), 1057-1096
ABSTRACT We develop a performance evaluation approach in which a fund manager's skill is judged by the extent to which the manager's investment decisions resemble the decisions of managers with distinguished performance records. The proposed performance measures use historical returns and holdings of many funds to evaluate the performance of a single fund. Simulations demonstrate that our measures are particularly useful in ranking managers. In an application that relies on such ranking, our measures reveal strong predictability in the returns of U.S. equity funds. Our measures provide information about future fund returns that is not contained in the standard measures.