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Strategic complexity in disclosure

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2023 76(2-3), 101635
Extensive evidence suggests that managers strategically choose the complexity of their descriptive disclosures. However, their motives in doing so appear mixed, as complex disclosures are used to obfuscate in some cases and to provide information in others. Building on these observations, we first identify a novel stylized fact: disclosure complexity is non-monotonic in firm performance. We develop a model of disclosure complexity that incorporates the dual roles of complexity and can explain this stylized fact. In the model, a manager discloses to investors of heterogeneous sophistication and can adjust the complexity of the disclosure to either provide more precise information or to obfuscate. When the firm's investor base is largely unsophisticated, the manager issues a complex disclosure only upon observing negative news. In contrast, when the firm's investor base is more sophisticated, the manager issues a complex disclosure upon observing either highly positive or negative news. As a result, the market may react more positively to complex information releases than to simple releases, complex disclosures generate heightened return volatility, and firms with more inherently complex information are more likely to use their discretion to simplify their disclosures.

Aggressive Boards and CEO Turnover

Journal of Accounting Research 2021 59(2), 437-486
ABSTRACT This study investigates a communication game between a CEO and a board of directors where the CEO's career concerns can potentially impede value‐increasing informative communication. By adopting a policy of aggressive boards (excessive replacement), shareholders can facilitate communication between the CEO and the board. The results are in contrast to the multitude of models which generally find that management‐friendly boards improve communication, and help to explain empirical results concerning CEO turnover. The results also provide the following novel predictions concerning variation in CEO turnover: (1) there is greater CEO turnover in firms or industries where CEO performance is relatively more difficult to assess; (2) the board is more aggressive in their replacement of the CEO in industries or firms where the board's advisory role is more salient; and (3) there is comparatively less CEO turnover in firms or industries where the variance of CEO talent is high.

Debt Contract Enforcement and Conservatism: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Journal of Accounting Research 2018 56(5), 1383-1416
ABSTRACT This study provides evidence that the use of conservative accounting in debt contracting depends on the enforceability of the contract. To test the effect of debt contract enforcement on borrowers' timely loss recognition, we exploit the staggered introduction of enhanced debt contract enforcement in Indian states as a natural experiment, where the implementation of the enforcement is exogenous to the accounting choices and borrowing behavior of firms. The main results show that enhanced enforcement has a significant positive effect on the timeliness of loss recognition of borrowing firms. We find that the effect is strongest for firms that increased their overall borrowing and for firms with high levels of tangible assets, consistent with a collateral‐based explanation. This study also provides causal evidence that firms adopt conservative accounting due to lenders' demand.

Managerial Myopia, Earnings Guidance, and Investment*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2023 40(1), 166-195 open access
ABSTRACT This study investigates the real effects of management communication, specifically of forecasts or earnings guidance , on investment. Managers can signal the strength of their projects through accuracy in their earnings guidance. This leads less accurate managers to distort their investments; the equilibrium investment strategy involves over‐investment when earnings exceed the forecast and under‐investment when earnings fall short. Moreover, we find that managers are pessimistic in their forecasts, which helps to explain the corresponding well‐documented empirical regularity. This downward bias increases the likelihood of investment manipulation but decreases the real loss from distortion. Interestingly, the over‐investment induced by earnings guidance helps to mitigate the classic under‐investment problem for a myopic manager with unobservable investment. Earnings guidance can therefore be value‐increasing when managerial myopia is severe.

Information arrival, delay, and clustering in financial markets with dynamic freeriding

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 138(1), 27-52
We study informational freeriding in a model where agents privately acquire information and then decide when to reveal it by taking an action. Examples of such freeriding are prevalent in financial markets, e.g., the timing of initial public offerings, analysts’ forecasts, and mutual funds’ investment decisions. The main results show that, in large populations, few agents provide significant information while the vast majority of agents freeride. We highlight the role of uncertainty and market size in shaping the dynamics of price discovery. Among other results, we find that heightened uncertainty over the underlying state enhances information production, yet weakens the precision and speed of information aggregation in the market.

Do Mandatory Disclosure Requirements for Private Firms Increase the Propensity of Going Public?

Journal of Accounting Research 2022 60(3), 755-804
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the effect of mandatory disclosure requirements for private firms on their decision to go public. Using detailed project‐level data for biopharmaceutical firms, we explore the effects of a legal reform that exogenously required firms to publicly disclose information regarding clinical trials. Exploiting cross‐sectional heterogeneity in firms' exposure to the regulation based on their internal development portfolios, we find that affected firms are significantly more likely to transition to public equity markets following the reform. Moreover, firms that go public because of the increased disclosure requirements subsequently reduce the size of their project portfolios while shifting to safer investments acquired externally. We provide additional evidence for the main hypothesis using a second setting: a 2006 German reform which enhanced the enforcement of mandatory disclosure requirements for private firms. The results suggest that private firms' general information environment and disclosure requirements influence the propensity of going public.

IPO peer effects

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 144(1), 206-226
This study investigates whether a private firm’s decision to go public affects the IPO decisions of its competitors. Using detailed data from the drug development industry, we identify a private firm’s direct competitors at a precise level through a novel approach using similarity in drug development projects based on disease targets. The analysis shows that a private firm is significantly more likely to go public after observing the recent IPO of a direct competitor, and this effect is distinct from “hot” market effects or other common shocks. Furthermore, our effects are centered on firms that operate in more competitive areas. We additionally explore peer effects in private firm funding propensities more broadly, such as through venture capital or being acquired, and find results consistent with a competitive channel.

Voluntary disclosure with evolving news

Journal of Financial Economics 2021 140(1), 21-53 open access
We study a dynamic voluntary disclosure setting where the manager’s information and the firm’s value evolve over time. The manager is not limited in her disclosure opportunities, but disclosure is costly. The results show that the manager discloses even if this leads to a price decrease in the current period. The manager absorbs this price drop in order to increase her option value of withholding disclosure in the future. That is, by disclosing today, the manager can improve her continuation value. The results provide a number of novel empirical predictions regarding asset prices and disclosure patterns over time. These include, among others, that disclosures are negatively correlated in time, and stock return skewness is negatively correlated with lagged returns for firms with low uncertainty over their future profitability, in more competitive industries, and in industries with less informative public news.

Strategic Timing of IPOs and Disclosure: A Dynamic Model of Multiple Firms

The Accounting Review 2021 96(3), 27-57
ABSTRACT We study a dynamic timing game between multiple firms, who decide when to go public in the presence of possible information externalities. A firm's IPO pricing is a function of its privately observed idiosyncratic type and the level of investor sentiment, which follows a stochastic, mean-reverting process. Firms may wish to delay their IPOs in order to observe the market reception of the offerings of their peers. We characterize the unique symmetric threshold equilibrium, whereby pioneer firms with high idiosyncratic types endogenously emerge. The results provide novel implications regarding variation in IPO timing, sequential clustering, IPO droughts, the composition of new issues over time, and how IPO volume fluctuates over time. These include, among others, that in more populated industries, a lower proportion of firms emerge as industry pioneers, but follower IPO volume is intensified. Additionally, heightened uncertainty over investor sentiment exacerbates delay and leads to lower IPO volume.

Sequential Reporting Bias

The Accounting Review 2024 99(5), 1-33 open access
ABSTRACT Firms with correlated fundamentals often issue reports sequentially, leading to information spillovers. The theoretical literature has investigated multifirm reporting, but only when firms report simultaneously. We examine the implications of sequential reporting, where firms aim to maximize their market price and can manipulate their reports. The introduction of sequentiality significantly alters the biasing behavior of firms and the resulting informational environment relative to simultaneous reporting. In particular, a lead firm always manipulates more when reports are issued sequentially. Moreover, relative to simultaneous reporting, sequential reporting reduces the overall information available to the market about each firm, resulting in less efficient and less volatile prices. Additionally, we find that stronger correlation in firm fundamentals can amplify the lead firm’s incentive for manipulation under sequentiality, in contrast to simultaneous reporting. We offer further results regarding, for example, market response coefficients, and provide a number of empirical implications. JEL Classifications: C72; D82; D83; G14; M41.