This paper applies a contingent claims approach to examine the duration of a zero coupon bond subject to default risk. One replicating portfolio for a default-prone zero coupon bond contains a long position in the default-free asset plus a short position in a put option on the underlying assets. The duration of the bond is shown to be a weighted combination of the duration of the default-free bond and the put option. The duration is less than maturity and is not an immunizing duration. The technique is then extended to subordinated debt.

In recent years several companies have offered employees the opportunity to transfer certain out-of-the-money options to a dealer. This paper examines one such high-profile program offered by Microsoft in 2003. The program was not very transparent in that employees were forced to decide whether to tender their options before knowing how much they would be offered, and it had only a modest rate of participation. Nonetheless, the market easily absorbed intense selling pressure as the options were transferred and hedged. The dealer, JPMorgan Chase, though profiting from the transfer, apparently failed to hedge the volatility risk it accepted from the employees and lost nearly the entire value it paid for the options. The overall experience has important implications for the design of programs that are intended to solve problems of low morale and increased turnover caused by underwater options.

Recent developments in the literature on bond portfolio management have identified conditions under which uncertainty of the investment return attributable to interest rate changes is eliminated. Such a strategy, called immunization, is achieved when the duration of the bond or portfolio of bonds is equal to the investor's holding period. Duration is defined as a weighted average time to maturity and was originally developed by Macaulay [13]. The condition under which immunization is obtained by setting duration equal to holding period was derived by Redington [14] and Fisher and Weil [10] and further developed by Bierwag and Kaufman [4], Bierwag [2], and Khang [12]. Bierwag [3] has provided a concise summary of the theory of immunization, and Bierwag and Khang [7] show that immunization is equivalent to selecting a strategy in which the worst possible return is maximized, i.e., a minimax strategy. Bierwag [1] examines immunization under multiple shocks to the term structure and Bierwag, Kaufman, and Toevs [6] extend the concept to a general equilibrium, two-state Arrow-Debreu world.

In a recent article Lloyd and Shick [3] examined a two-index model of bank stock returns with interest rates as the extra-market source of covariance. Based on their findings, the authors were optimistic that the inclusion of an interest rate index would prove to be worthwhile in market model regressions. The purpose of this comment is to question their conclusions by pointing out some specific deficiencies concerning their data, the statistical tests, and their interpretation of the results.

This paper applies a contingent claims approach to examine the duration of a zero coupon bond subject to default risk. One replicating portfolio for a default-prone zero coupon bond contains a long position in the default-free asset plus a short position in a put option on the underlying assets. The duration of the bond is shown to be a weighted combination of the duration of the default-free bond and the put option. The duration is less than maturity and is not an immunizing duration. The technique is then extended to subordinated debt.

ABSTRACT This paper applies a contingent claims approach to examine the duration of a zero coupon bond subject to default risk. One replicating portfolio for a default‐prone zero coupon bond contains a long position in the default‐free asset plus a short position in a put option on the underlying assets. The duration of the bond is shown to be a weighted combination of the duration of the default‐free bond and the put option. The duration is less than maturity and is not an immunizing duration. The technique is then extended to subordinated debt.

We examine the performance of 30 professional market timers during 1986–1994. Prior studies have analyzed implicit recommendations from mutual fund returns or explicit recommendations from newsletters. We analyze explicit recommendations executed in customer accounts. Using four tests, three benchmark portfolios, and daily data, we find significant unconditional and conditional ability that is robust with respect to transaction costs and survivorship bias. Relative ability persists and varies with the frequency of recommendation changes. When recommendations of successful timers are observed monthly instead of daily, significant ability generally disappears. Hence, the frequency with which recommendations are observed can change inferences regarding ability.

We examine S&P 500 firms over 1999–2014 that characterize their annual performance with extreme positive language. Only 18% of such firms increase shareholder value, while over 80% have either negative or insignificant abnormal returns. Our evidence suggests that firms often base their claims of extreme positive performance on high raw returns or strong relative accounting performance. In comparison to firms that generate positive abnormal returns without boasting, our sample firms tend to have superior accounting performance. We conclude that boasting about performance is rarely associated with value creation and is more consistent with an emphasis on accounting metrics.