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Assessing the credit risk of money market funds during the eurozone crisis

Journal of Financial Stability 2016 25, 150-165
This paper measures credit risk in prime money market funds (MMFs) and studies how such credit risk evolved during the eurozone crisis of 2011–2012. To accomplish this, we estimate the annualized expected loss on each fund's portfolio. We also calculate by Monte Carlo the cost of insuring a fund against losses amounting to over 50 basis points. We find that credit risk of prime MMFs, though small, doubled from 12 basis points in June 2011 to 23 basis points in December 2011 before receding in 2012. Contrary to common perceptions, this did not primarily reflect funds’ credit exposure to eurozone banks because funds took measures to reduce this exposure. Instead, credit risk in prime MMFs rose because of the deteriorating credit outlook of banks in the Asia/Pacific region. We conclude that the increase in the credit risk of prime MMFs in the second half of 2011 reflected contagion in the worldwide banking system coupled with slowing global economic growth, not actions taken by MMFs.

Blood Money: Selling Plasma to Avoid High-Interest Loans

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(9), 2779-2816
Abstract Little is known about the motivations and outcomes of sellers in remunerated markets for human materials. We exploit dramatic growth in the U.S. blood plasma industry to shed light on the sellers of plasma. Sellers tend to be young and liquidity-constrained with low incomes and limited access to traditional credit. Plasma centers absorb demand for nontraditional credit. After a plasma center opens nearby, demand for payday loans falls by over 13% among young borrowers. Meanwhile, foot traffic increases by over 4% at nearby stores, suggesting that constrained households use plasma markets to smooth consumption without appealing to high-cost debt.

Investor Information Acquisition and Money Market Fund Risk Rebalancing during the 2011–2012 Eurozone Crisis*

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(4), 1445-1483 open access
Abstract We study investor redemptions and portfolio rebalancing decisions of prime money market mutual funds (MMFs) during the Eurozone crisis. We find that sophisticated investors selectively acquire information about MMFs’ risk exposures to Europe, which leads managers to withdraw funding from information-sensitive European issuers. That is, MMF managers, particularly those serving the most sophisticated investors, selectively adjust their portfolio risk exposures to avoid information-sensitive European risks, while maintaining or increasing risk exposures to other regions. This mechanism helps to explain the occurrence of selective “dry-ups” in debt markets where delegation is common and returns to information production are usually low. (JEL G01, G21, G23) Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Let the rich be flooded: The distribution of financial aid and distress after hurricane harvey

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 146(2), 797-819
Outside of flood hazard zones, households must decide whether to insure or rely on disaster assistance to manage flood risk. We use the quasi-random flooding generated by Hurricane Harvey, which hit Houston in August 2017, to understand the implications of flood losses for households with differing access to insurance and credit. Outside the floodplain, credit-constrained homeowners experience a 20% increase in bankruptcies and a 13% increase in the share of debt in severe delinquency in flooded blocks relative to non-flooded areas. Treatment effects are universally insignificant inside the floodplain, implying that flood insurance mitigates the financial impact of flooding across the credit distribution. Disaster assistance, on the other hand, does not appear to counteract the role of initial inequalities on post-disaster credit outcomes. We find SBA disaster loans and, more surprisingly, FEMA grants to both be regressive in allocation. Our results highlight that averages mask important heterogeneity after disasters, which challenges existing narratives of how effectively Federal disaster programs mitigate the financial burden of natural disasters.

Human Capital Investment after the Storm

Review of Financial Studies 2023 36(7), 2651-2684
Abstract How does household exposure to a natural disaster affect higher education investments? Using variation in flooding from Hurricane Harvey (2017), we find that college-aged adults from flooded blocks in Houston are 7% less likely than counterparts to have student loans after Harvey, with larger effects in areas with more potential first-generation students. We find a similar relative decline in enrollment at more exposed Texas universities and colleges and a shift toward majors with higher expected earnings. Our results highlight a decrease in the quantity but an increase in the intensity of investments in human capital after the storm. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Medicaid and household savings behavior: New evidence from tax refunds

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 136(2), 523-546
Using data on over 57,000 low-income tax filers, we estimate the effect of Medicaid access on the propensity of households to save or repay debt from their tax refunds. We instrument for Medicaid access using variation in state eligibility rules. We find substanital heterogeneity across households in the savings response to Medicaid. Households that are not experiencing financial hardship behave in a manner consistent with a precautionary savings model, meaning they save less under Medicaid. In contrast, among households experiencing financial hardship, Medicaid eligibility increases refund savings rates by roughly 5 percentage points or $102. For both sets of households, effects are stronger in states with lower bankruptcy exemption limits—consistent with uninsured, financially constrained households using bankruptcy to manage health expenditure risk. Our results imply that expansions to the social safety net may affect the magnitude of the consumption response to tax rebates.