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Temporal networks and financial contagion

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 71, 101224
This paper studies the dynamics of contagion across the banking, insurance and shadow banking sectors of 18 advanced economies in the period 2006-2018. We construct Granger causality-in-risk networks and introduce higher-order aggregate networks and higher-order node centralities in an economic setting to capture non-Markovian network features. Our approach uncovers the dynamics of financial contagion as it is transmitted across segments of the financial system and jurisdictions. The calculated higher-order centralities identify sectors in distress as the nodes through which contagion propagates. The banking system emerges as the primary source and transmitter of stress while banks and shadow banks are highly interconnected. The insurance sector is found to contribute less to stress transmission in all periods, except during the global financial crisis. The proposed approach is able to identify clearly the sectors that are critical for the transmission of financial contagion, in contrast to the commonly used memoryless measures of network centrality.

Cross-border effects of prudential regulation: Evidence from the euro area

Journal of Financial Stability 2021 53, 100820
Using the Prudential Instruments Database (Cerutti et al., 2017b) and a unique confidential database on balance sheet items of euro area financial institutions, we analyse cross-border spillovers from prudential regulation for 248 banks from 16 euro-area countries over the period 2007Q3–2014Q4. We find that foreign branches increase lending following the tightening of sector-specific capital buffers, loan-to-value (LTV) limits or reserve requirements on deposits in local currencies in the countries where their parent banks reside. We also find that cross-border spillovers through lending of branches are stronger than through subsidiaries, possibly because it is easier for branches to reallocate lending across different jurisdictions, as they do not need to meet prudential requirements at a solo level. Finally, we find that also euro-area domestic banks increase lending, in particular to the real sector, when LTV limits are tightened abroad.