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Long-Run Risk through Consumption Smoothing

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(8), 3190-3224
We examine how long-run consumption risk arises endogenously in a standard pro-duction economy model where the representative agent has Epstein-Zin preferences. We show that even when technology growth is i.i.d., optimal consumption smoothing induces long run risk- highly persistent variation in expected consumption growth. As a consequence, the model can account for a high price of risk although both consump-tion growth volatility and the coe ¢ cient of relative risk aversion are low. The asset pricing implications of endogenous long-run risk depend crucially on the persistence of technology shocks and investorspreference for the timing of resolution of uncertainty.

Long-Run Risk through Consumption Smoothing

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(8), 3190-3224
[We examine how long-run consumption risk arises endogenously in a standard production economy model where the representative agent has Epstein-Zin preferences. We show that even when technology growth is i.i.d., optimal consumption smoothing induces long-run risk—highly persistent variation in expected consumption growth. As a consequence, the model can account for a high price of risk, although both consumption growth volatility and the coefficient of relative risk aversion are low. The asset pricing implications of endogenous long-run risk depend crucially on the persistence of technology shocks and investors' preference for the timing of resolution of uncertainty.]