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Nonparametric Test for Causality with Long-range Dependence

Econometrica 2000 68(6), 1465-1490
This paper introduces a nonparametric Granger-causality test for covariance stationary linear processes under, possibly, the presence of long-range dependence. We show that the test is consistent and has power against contiguous alternatives converging to the parametric rate T−1/2. Since the test is based on estimates of the parameters of the representation of a VAR model as a, possibly, two-sided infinite distributed lag model, we first show that a modification of Hannan's (1963, 1967) estimator is root- T consistent and asymptotically normal for the coefficients of such a representation. When the data are long-range dependent, this method of estimation becomes more attractive than least squares, since the latter can be neither root- T consistent nor asymptotically normal as is the case with short-range dependent data.

Adapting to Unknown Disturbance Autocorrelation in Regression with Long Memory

Econometrica 2002 70(4), 1545-1581 open access
We show that it is possible to adapt to nonparametric disturbance autocorrelation in time series regression in the presence of long memory in both regressors and disturbances by using a smoothed nonparametric spectrum estimate in frequency–domain generalized least squares. When the collective memory in regressors and disturbances is sufficiently strong, ordinary least squares is not only asymptotically inefficient but asymptotically non–normal and has a slow rate of convergence, whereas generalized least squares is asymptotically normal and Gauss–Markov efficient with standard convergence rate. Despite the anomalous behavior of nonparametric spectrum estimates near a spectral pole, we are able to justify a standard construction of frequency–domain generalized least squares, earlier considered in case of short memory disturbances. A small Monte Carlo study of finite sample performance is included.