Abstract Governments around the world use short-term reelection strategies. This is problematic if governments can maximize their reelection chances by prioritizing short-term spending before an election over long-term reforms. This paper tests whether longer program exposure has a causal effect on election outcomes in the context of a large antipoverty program in India. Using a regression-discontinuity framework, the results show that length of program exposure lowers electoral support for the government. The paper discusses a couple of potential explanations, finding that the most plausible mechanism is that voters hold the government accountable for the program's implementation quality.

Abstract This paper studies the effects of transitioning from a system of sales taxes to a value-added tax (VAT) on firm-level outcomes. We construct a dataset of product- and state-specific tax rates before and after India gradually switched from a sales tax to a VAT. Exploiting staggered state-level adoptions, we first show that following the transition, effective tax rates declined substantially and complexity as measured by various proxies generally also fell. We then show that sales increased by 57% in the medium run. The reform resulted in increased earnings for workers and higher amounts of capital and digital accounting.