Asset pricing tests often replace ex ante return expectation with ex post realization. The large deviation between the two drastically weakens the power of these tests. This paper proposes to use analysts consensus price target for a stock as the market expectation of the stock’s future price to directly construct the stock’s expected excess return. Analyzing the expected excess return behavior both over time and across different stocks shows that classic asset pricing theory works much better on ex ante return expectations than on ex post realizations. The analysis also provides new insights on the pricing of common equity risk factors.

A major issue with predicting inflation rates using predictive regressions is that estimation errors can overwhelm the information content. This article proposes a new approach that uses a monetary-policy rule as a bridge between inflation rates and short-term interest rates and relies on the forward-interest-rate curve to predict future interest-rate movements. The 2-step procedure estimates the predictive relation not through a predictive regression but far more accurately through the contemporaneous monetary-policy linkage. Historical analysis shows that the approach outperforms random walk out of sample by 30%–50% over horizons from 1 to 5 years.

This paper specifies term structure dynamics by a recursive cascade of heterogeneously persistent factors. The cascade naturally orders economic shocks by their adjustment speeds, and generates smooth interest-rate curves in closed form. For a class of specifications, the number of parameters is invariant to the size of the state space, and the term structure converges to a stochastic limit as the state dimension goes to infinity. High-dimensional specifications fit observed term structure almost perfectly, match the observed low correlation between movements in different maturities, and produce stable interest-rate forecasts that outperform lower-dimensional specifications.