Are nominal bonds appropriately discounted for taxes? Empirical estimates of the response of nominal interest rates to changes in inflation, the Fisher effect, have failed to produce a definitive answer. Four reasons have been put forward as possible explanations: (i) Tobin effects, (ii) fiscal illusion, (iii) peso problems, and (iv) different estimators. Utilizing data on taxable and tax‐exempt bond interest rates and several different estimators, we find that the Fisher effect estimates are always larger for the taxable bond relative to the tax‐exempt bond, suggesting that fiscal illusion and different estimators cannot account for the previous results.

Using a sample of 175 publicly traded bank holding companies (BHCs), we find that managerial incentives and external monitoring affect the decision to use derivatives in the banking industry. Managers with incentives that are more closely aligned with the interests of shareholders, as reflected in a high percentage of CEO shareholdings, are less likely to use derivatives when insider holdings exceed 10%. Similarly, when outside directors own substantial equity, the firm is less likely to use derivatives. These results suggest that managers with large equity stakes take advantage of the risk-shifting opportunities of deposit insurance by not hedging. For BHCs with insider holdings below 10%, however, monitoring by outside directors is associated with a greater likelihood of derivative usage. This suggests that monitoring by outside directors may lead to more risk-averse behavior on the part of managers with small equity stakes.

Previous analyses have concluded that expectations of future excess stock returns rather than future real dividend growth or real interest rates are responsible for most of the volatility in stock prices. In this paper, we employ a state-space model to model the dynamics of the log price-dividend ratio along with long-term and short-term interest rates, real dividend growth, and inflation. The advantage of the state-space approach is that we can parsimoniously model the low-frequency movements present in the data. We find that, if one allows permanent changes, even though very small, in real dividend growth, real interest rates, and inflation-but not excess stock returns-then expectations of real dividend growth and real interest rates become significant contributors to fluctuations in stock prices. However, we also show that stock price decompositions are very sensitive to assumptions about which unobserved market fundamentals have a permanent component. When we allow excess stock returns to have a permanent component but not real dividend growth, excess stock returns become an important contributor to stock price movements, whereas real dividend growth does not. Unfortunately, the data is not particularly informative about which of these alternative models is more likely.

A simple macro model is used to investigate various monetarist propositions over the period 1923-82. Initial tests indicate a structural break over this period and the subperiods 1923-60 and 1961-82 are analyzed separately. Results obtained for the latter period support the monetarist propositions put forward by Stein and others. However, upon closer investigation it appears that the crucial long-run neutrality that characterizes these findings is essentially generated by government policy and is not necessarily an intrinsic property of the economy over that period. By contrast, results obtained for the period 1923-60 are much less supportive of these same propositions.

Are nominal bonds appropriately discounted for taxes? Empirical estimates of the response of nominal interest rates to changes in inflation, the Fisher effect, have failed to produce a definitive answer. Four reasons have been put forward as possible explanations: (i) Tobin effects, (ii) fiscal illusion, (iii) peso problems, and (iv) different estimators. Utilizing data on taxable and tax‐exempt bond interest rates and several different estimators, we find that the Fisher effect estimates are always larger for the taxable bond relative to the tax‐exempt bond, suggesting that fiscal illusion and different estimators cannot account for the previous results.

We employ a unique data set and new time-series techniques to reexamine the existence of trends in relative primary commodity prices. The data set comprises 25 commodities and provides a new historical perspective, spanning the seventeenth to the twenty-first centuries. New tests for the trend function, robust to the order of integration of the series, are applied to the data. Results show that eleven price series present a significant and downward trend over all or some fraction of the sample period. In the very long run, a secular, deteriorating trend is a relevant phenomenon for a significant proportion of primary commodities.