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Cyclical Productivity and the Workweek of Capital
The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market
Are Cyclical Fluctuation in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?
Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding
Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation
The intertemporal elasticity of investment for long-lived capital goods is nearly infinite. Consequently, investment prices should fully reflect temporary tax subsidies, regardless of the investment supply elasticity. Since prices move one-for-one with the subsidy, elasticities can be inferred from quantities alone. This paper uses a recent tax policy—bonus depreciation—to estimate the investment supply elasticity. Investment in qualified capital increased sharply. The estimated elasticity is high—between 6 and 14. There is no evidence that market prices reacted to the subsidy, suggesting that adjustment costs are internal, or that measurement error masks the price changes. (JEL G31, H32)
The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor
A model of the dynamically interrelated demand for capital and labor is specified and estimated. The estimates are of the first-order conditions of the firm's problem rather than of the closed-form decision rules. This use of the first-order conditions allows a random rate of return and a flexible specification of the technology. The estimates do not imply the very slow rates of adjustment displayed in other, related estimates of the demand for capital. Because adjustment is estimated to be rapid, there is, contrary to the standard view, scope for factor prices to affect investment at relatively high frequencies.
American Economic Association Committee on Statistics (AEAStat): Annual Report—2010
The current members of the Committee on Economic Statistics are Matthew Shapiro, University of Michigan (Chair); Mark Bils, University of Rochester; Dennis Fixler, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Barbara Fraumeni, University of Southern Maine; David Johnson, Census Bureau; Randall Kroszner, University of Chicago; Jonathan Parker, Northwestern University; Charles Schultze, Brookings Institution; and Jack Triplett. In January 2007, the Executive Committee voted to give the Committee standing authority to organize three sessions each year for inclusion on the program of the Association’s annual meeting. At its April 2008 meeting, the Executive Committee voted to allow the Committee to designate one session each year for publication in the annual Papers and Proceedings volume. For the January 2011 meeting, the Committee circulated a call for papers related to the statistical issues arising from the financial crisis and potential changes in financial regulations, markets, and institutions in addition to any topics related to economic statistics. The following three sessions are included in the program of the January 2010 meeting: “Frontiers of Productivity and Output Measurement,” “New Approaches to Measuring Household-Level Finances,” and “Measuring Financial Capacity and Risk: Lessons from the Financial Crisis.” Details of the sessions are given in the Table. The Committee has also undertaken the task of commissioning reviews of needs for data in particular subject matter areas. A group cochaired by Robert Feenstra and Robert Lipsey completed a report on data needs for research on international trade. It was discussed at this year’s National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute meetings. It is scheduled for discussion at a meeting of the Federal Economic American Economic Association Committee on Statistics (AEAStat)
American Economic Association Committee on Statistics (AEAStat) Annual Report—2009
The current members of the Committee on Economic Statistics are Matthew Shapiro, University of Michigan (chair); Katharine Abraham, University of Maryland; Robert Feenstra, University of California–Davis; Dennis Fixler, Bureau of Economic Analysis; David Johnson, Census Bureau; Barbara Fraumeni, University of Southern Maine; Jonathan Parker, Northwestern University; Charles Schultze, Brookings Institution; Jack Triplett. The committee met by teleconference in January and September 2009. Katharine Abraham stepped down as chair of the Committee on Statistics early in 2009 in order to chair the newly established American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations. The Committee on Statistics is exceedingly grateful for her thoughtful and effective leadership during her tenure as chair. In January 2007, the Executive Committee voted to give the Committee standing authority to organize three sessions each year for inclusion on the program of the Association’s annual meeting. At its April 2008 meeting, the Executive Committee voted to allow the Committee to designate one session each year for publication in the annual Papers and Proceedings volume. For the January 2010 meeting, the Committee circulated a call for papers on the measurement of intangibles, trade in services, and other economic measurement topics. The following three sessions are included in the program of the January 2010 meeting: “Measuring Intangible Capital,” “Measuring Labor and Wage Dynamics with Administrative Data,” and “Measuring Cognition and Linking it to Economic Outcomes.” Details of the sessions are given in the Table. The call for papers for the 2011 session solicits submissions related to the statistical issues arising from the financial crisis and potential changes in financial regulations, markets, and institutions in addition to any topics related to economic statistics. American Economic Association Committee on Statistics (AEAStat)
Cyclical productivity and the workweek of capital
Standard specifications of the production function assume that an increase in labor given the stock of physical capital will reduce the capital-labor ratio. Since the stock of physical capital is quasi-fixed, the elasticity of output with respect to labor should be less than 1 as long as there are constant returns to scale. However, empirical studies of productivity typically find short-run increasing returns to labor. But the effective stock of capital should not be regarded as fixed if, when labor increases, it goes onto a previously inoperative shift. Labor that works the late shift will have at least as much capital as labor working days. Hence, for increases in labor that are accompanied by increases in the workweek of capital, there is no presumption of diminishing marginal product of labor. This paper describes briefly a data set that provides a direct measure of the workweek of capital and then investigates its role in cyclical productivity. It finds that much of the apparent cyclicality of total factor productivity is accounted for by variation in the workweek of capital.