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Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence

Review of Financial Studies 2006 19(4), 1499-1529
We explore the time-series relationship between investor sentiment and the small-stock premium using consumer confidence as a measure of investor optimism. We estimate the components of consumer confidence related to economic fundamentals and investor sentiment. After controlling for the time variation of beta, we study the time-series variation of the pricing error with sentiment. Over the last 25 years, investor sentiment measured using consumer confidence forecasts the returns of small stocks and stocks with low institutional ownership in a manner consistent with the predictions of models based on noise-trader sentiment. Sentiment does not appear to forecast time-series variation in the value and momentum premiums.

Option Backdating and Board Interlocks

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(11), 4821-4847
[We examine the role of board connections in explaining how the controversial practice of backdating employee stock options spread to a large number of firms across a wide range of industries. The increase in the likelihood that a firm begins to backdate stock options that can be explained by having a board member who is interlocked to a previously identified backdating firm is approximately one-third of the unconditional probability of backdating in our sample. Our analysis provides new insight into how boards function and the role that they play in providing managerial oversight and determining corporate strategy.]

Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence

Review of Financial Studies 2006 19(4), 1499-1529
We explore the time-series relationship between investor sentiment and the small-stock premium using consumer confidence as a measure of investor optimism. We estimate the components of consumer confidence related to economic fundamentals and investor sentiment. After controlling for the time variation of beta, we study the time-series variation of the pricing error with sentiment. Over the last 25 years, investor sentiment measured using consumer confidence forecasts the returns of small stocks and stocks with low institutional ownership in a manner consistent with the predictions of models based on noise-trader sentiment. Sentiment does not appear to forecast time-series variation in the value and momentum premiums. (JEL G10, G12, G14)

The Response of Corporate Financing and Investment to Changes in the Supply of Credit

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2010 45(3), 555-587
We examine how shocks to the supply of credit impact corporate financing and investment using the collapse of Drexel Burnham Lambert, Inc.; the passage of the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989; and regulatory changes in the insurance industry as an exogenous contraction in the supply of below-investment-grade credit after 1989. A difference-in-differences empirical strategy reveals that substitution to bank debt and alternative sources of capital (e.g., equity, cash balances, and trade credit) was limited, leading to an almost one-for-one decline in net investment with the decline in net debt issuances. Despite this sharp change in behavior, corporate leverage ratios remained relatively stable, a result of the contemporaneous decline in debt issuances and investment. Overall, our findings highlight how even large firms with access to public credit markets are susceptible to fluctuations in the supply of capital.

Debt, Leases, Taxes, and the Endogeneity of Corporate Tax Status

Journal of Finance 1998 53(1), 131-162
We provide evidence that corporate tax status is endogenous to financing decisions, which induces a spurious relation between measures of financial policy and many commonly used tax proxies. Using a forward-looking estimate of before-financing corporate marginal tax rates, we document a negative relation between operating leases and tax rates, and a positive relation between debt levels and tax rates. This is the first unambiguous evidence supporting the hypothesis that low tax rate firms lease more, and have lower debt levels, than high tax rate firms.

Are all CEOs above average? An empirical analysis of compensation peer groups and pay design

Journal of Financial Economics 2011 100(3), 538-555
Companies can potentially use compensation peer groups to inflate pay by choosing peers that are larger, choosing a high target pay percentile, or choosing peer firms with high pay. Although peers are largely selected based on characteristics that reflect the labor market for managerial talent, we find that peer groups are constructed in a manner that biases compensation upward, particularly in firms outside the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500. Pay increases close only about one-third of the gap between the pay of the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and the peer group, however, suggesting that boards exercise discretion in adjusting compensation. Preliminary evidence suggests that increased disclosure has reduced the biases in peer group choice.

Breaking up is hard to do? An analysis of termination fee provisions and merger outcomes

Journal of Financial Economics 2003 69(3), 469-504
We examine the provision of termination fee clauses in merger agreements between 1989 and 1998. Target-payable fees are observed more frequently when bidding is costly and the potential for information expropriation by third parties is significant. Fee provisions appear to benefit target shareholders through higher deal completion rates and greater negotiated takeover premiums. We conclude that target-payable fees serve as an efficient contracting device, rather than a means by which to deter competitive bidding. Bidder fee provisions appear to be used to secure target wealth gains in deals with higher costs associated with negotiation and bid failure.

Asymmetric Information, Debt Capacity, and Capital Structure

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2019 54(1), 31-59
Capital structure choice based on costs associated with asymmetric information is examined in order to present a new perspective on the standard pecking order and trade-off theories. In the model, both the face value of debt and the restrictiveness of the associated debt covenants are chosen as part of the financial structure, allowing a more complete characterization of this decision. Debt structure choice balances ex ante adverse selection against ex post moral hazard, providing a natural integration of the pecking order and trade-off theories and the development of interesting empirical implications.

Spreading the Misery? Sources of Bankruptcy Spillover in the Supply Chain

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2016 51(6), 1955-1990 open access
We document that suppliers to purely financially distressed companies that are highly likely to reorganize in bankruptcy incur little or no spillover costs. In contrast, suppliers to economically distressed firms experience large losses in market value that are linked to proxies for the cost of replacing the bankrupt customers. Suppliers experience increased selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and lower margins in the year following the bankruptcy of their trading partners, which we link to proxies for partner replacement costs. Suppliers continue to extend trade credit to firms that are healthier and in situations where the cost of replacing the partner is higher.

Debt Capacity and Tests of Capital Structure Theories

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2010 45(5), 1161-1187
We examine the impact of explicitly incorporating a measure of debt capacity in recent tests of competing theories of capital structure. Our main results are that if external funds are required, in the absence of debt capacity concerns, debt appears to be preferred to equity. Concerns over debt capacity largely explain the use of new external equity financing by publicly traded firms. Finally, we present evidence that reconciles the frequent equity issues by small, high-growth firms with the pecking order. After accounting for debt capacity, the pecking order theory appears to give a good description of financing behavior for a large sample of firms examined over an extended time period.