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Mandated versus Voluntary Adaptation to Natural Disasters: The Case of US Wildfires

Journal of Political Economy 2026 134(3), 895-948 open access
Despite escalating disaster losses and predicted increases in weather-related catastrophes, takeup of protective technologies and behaviors appears limited by myopia, externalities, and other factors. One response to such frictions is to mandate adaptive investment. We measure the effect of California's wildfire building codes on own- and neighboring structure survival using administrative damage and assessment data for most US homes experiencing wildfires since 2000. Differences across jurisdictions and vintages reveal remarkable resilience effects of building codes initially prompted by the deadly 1991 Oakland Firestorm. Codes also benefit neighbors. We use the results to estimate net social benefits of wildfire building standards.

Default Effects And Follow-On Behaviour: Evidence From An Electricity Pricing Program

Review of Economic Studies 2021 88(6), 2886-2934 open access
We study default effects in the context of a residential electricity-pricing program. In the large-scale randomized controlled trial we analyse, one treatment group was given the option to opt-in to time-varying pricing while another was defaulted into the program but allowed to opt-out. We provide dramatic evidence of a default effect on program participation, consistent with previous research. A novel feature of our study is that we also observe how the default manipulation impacts customers’ subsequent electricity consumption. Passive consumers who did not opt-out but would not have opted in—comprising more than 70% of the sample—nonetheless reduce consumption in response to higher prices. Observing of this follow-on behaviour enables us to assess competing explanations for the default effect. We draw conclusions about the likely welfare effects of defaulting customers onto time-varying pricing.