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Do Employers Provide Insurance against Low Frequency Shocks? Industry Employment and Industry Wages

Journal of Labor Economics 2005 23(2), 313-340
I use panel data to examine whether long‐term changes in industry wages are positively related to long‐term changes in industry employment. Previous research using repeated cross‐sectional data found no systematic relationship between these variables. Using standard fixed effects models to deal with individual heterogeneity, I find a robust positive relationship between changes in composition‐constant industry wages and industry employment. This suggests that growing industries attract less skilled individuals in a manner that biases down the estimated relationship between industry employment and wages in repeated cross‐sectional data. The results imply that supply curves facing industries are elastic but upward sloping.

The More the Merrier? The Effect of Family Size and Birth Order on Children's Education*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2005 120(2), 669-700 open access
There is an extensive theoretical literature that postulates a tradeoff between child quantity and quality within a family. However, there is little causal evidence that speaks to this theory. Using a rich dataset on the entire population of Norway over an extended period of time, we examine the effects of family size and birth order on the educational attainment of children. While we find a negative correlation between family size and children's education, when we include indicators for birth order and/or use twin births as an instrument, family size effects become negligible. In addition, birth order has a significant and large negative effect on children's education. We also study adult earnings, employment, and teenage childbearing, and find strong evidence for birth order effects with these outcomes, particularly among women. These findings suggest the need to revisit economic models of fertility and child "production", focusing not only on differences across families but differences within families as well.