A number of recent papers examine the relationship between default risk and equity returns, and the results are mixed. These studies employ different measures of default risk and we find that correlations between eight diverse measures of default risk tend to be less than 50%. Nonetheless, we find that the relationship between stock returns and diverse measures of default risk tends to be consistent; default risk is a significant determinant of stock returns and this relationship is “hump backed”, as predicted by Garlappi and Yan (2011).

This paper studies cross-sectional determinants of the exposure of U.K. firms to Brexit, an event which resulted in an unprecedented rise in political uncertainty. We find that internationalization has a moderating effect on Brexit exposure which goes beyond the pure currency translation effect and is consistent with international activities acting as a diversification mechanism for domestic risks. We also provide some indicative evidence that high-growth firms are more affected by Brexit. At the industry level, we show that Financials and firms in the consumer-facing sectors have the highest exposure to Brexit-related uncertainty. Knowledge of the variation in exposure of individual firms and sectors to political uncertainty associated with major political events can assist managers, investors and policymakers in taking remedial actions to limit its impact.

We investigate agency variation in credit quality assessment (Standard and Poor’s vs. Moody’s vs. Fitch) employing sovereign ratings data for 129 countries, spanning the period 1990–2006. While we find that the credit rating agencies often disagree about credit quality, it is usually confined to one or two notches on the finer scale. We find that several variables have varying importance in explaining ratings across agencies which leads us to conclude that material heterogeneity exists between them. Also, while watch and outlook procedures are generally strong predictors of rating changes relative to other public data, additional significant variables suggest that it might be possible to augment these agency data to provide better forecasts of future rating changes.

This paper analyses the effect of financial distress risk on the initial compensation contracts of new executives in the UK, where credit markets are more concentrated than in the US. We find that financial distress risk has a negative and statistically significant impact on the level of cash-based compensation and total compensation of executives, who are newly hired from either outside or inside the firm. This negative impact is accentuated in firms with a high fraction of bank debt, suggesting that banks, as creditors, provide monitoring and influence initial executive compensation packages in firms with high financial distress risk. Additionally, we find that financial distress risk has a negative and significant impact on the fraction of equity-based compensation for both externally and internally appointed executives.