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Macroeconomic News and Stock–Bond Comovement

Review of Finance 2023 27(5), 1859-1882 open access
Covariances between aggregate stock returns and changes in bond yields change sign over time. Existing theories emphasize either time-varying properties of expected inflation or time-varying properties of real yields. Using revisions in survey forecasts as proxies for macroeconomic news, neither approach succeeds empirically. Inflation-centric models require much more news about expected future inflation than we observe from surveys. Real-centric models posit signs of covariances among macroeconomic news, changes in yields, and stock returns that do not match those in the data. In a nutshell, macroeconomic news appears to drive a substantial part of stock–bond comovement, but not in ways consistent with our theories.

Precious Neighbors: The Value of Co-Locating with the Government

Review of Finance 2023 27(4), 1269-1296 open access
In many countries, disproportionately many firms locate their headquarters in the capital city. Spatial proximity to a country’s leading politicians may be beneficial for a number of reasons. Since neither firms nor governments move randomly, the effects of firms’ co-locating with the government are normally hard to identify. I solve this problem by examining a unique event—the decision to relocate the German federal government from Bonn to Berlin in 1991. Following reunification, there was a free vote in the German parliament on the future location of the government. Berlin won by a narrow margin, an event that could not be anticipated even days before and that is free from confounding factors. Firms with corporate headquarters in Berlin experience abnormal equity returns of more than 3% following the relocation decision.

Increasing Earnings Inequality: Reconciling Evidence from Survey and Administrative Data

Journal of Labor Economics 2023 41(S1), S61-S93
Analyses of survey data highlight observable person characteristics, such as education and occupation, as critical factors for rising earnings inequality, while industry has an offsetting effect. In contrast, analysis of administrative data highlights that rising between-firm earnings dispersion and, in turn, between-industry earnings dispersion dominates the rise in earnings inequality. We construct a novel integrated dataset based on CPS micro data linked with LEHD administrative records. We find that most of the rise in earnings inequality is accounted for by rising between-industry inequality. This finding reflects a substantial contribution of increased sorting and segregation of observable person characteristics between industries.

Appraisal rights and corporate disclosure during mergers and acquisitions

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2023 75(1), 101527
Target shareholders have the right to ask for a higher merger price if good news emerges after a merger agreement. This “appraisal right” varies with state law and was substantially strengthened in Delaware in 2007. I examine how target managers respond to changes in this right. If target managers represent target shareholders, the managers would be more likely to release good news, but I find they are more likely to withhold good news when appraisal rights are higher. This suggests agency problems and collusion on the part of target managers, and thus my paper adds to the larger literature that considers agency problems on the part of managers.

Syndicate structure and IPO outcomes: The impact of underwriter roles and syndicate concentration

Journal of Corporate Finance 2023 79, 102382
We examine how the composition and concentration of the underwriting syndicate affects outcomes in U.S. initial public offerings (IPOs) from 2002 to 2020. Most IPOs now feature “phantom” lead managers who underwrite significantly fewer shares than the lead-left bookrunner. We hypothesize that the phantom lead is the result of bargaining between issuers wanting greater information production and lead-left bookrunners preferring greater control of the IPO. Larger, less concentrated IPO syndicates feature more absolute price adjustments from the filing price during bookbuilding with downward revisions on average, and more analyst following post-IPO. The magnitude of price adjustments is greater when adding active joint leads relative to passive phantom leads. More concentrated IPOs feature higher first-day returns following positive price adjustments. Adding lead managers reduces the likelihood the lead-left will retain that role in follow-on equity offerings.

Financing the litigation arms race

Journal of Financial Economics 2023 149(2), 218-234 open access
Using a dynamic real-option model of litigation, we show that the increasingly popular practice of third-party litigation financing has ambiguous implications for total ex-post litigant surplus. A defendant and a plaintiff bargain over a settlement payment. The defendant takes costly actions to avoid deadweight losses associated with large transfers to the plaintiff. Litigation financing bolsters the plaintiff, leading to larger deadweight losses. However, by endogenously deterring the defendant from taking costly actions, litigation financing can nonetheless improve the joint surplus of the plaintiff and defendant. In contrast to popular opinion, litigation financing does not necessarily encourage high-risk frivolous lawsuits.

Did doubling reserve requirements cause the 1937–38 recession? New evidence on the impact of reserve requirements on bank reserve demand and lending

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2023 56, 101056
In 1936–37, the Federal Reserve doubled member banks’ reserve requirements. Friedman and Schwartz (1963) famously argued that the doubling increased reserve demand and forced the money supply to contract, which they argued caused the recession of 1937–38. Using a new database on individual banks, we find that higher reserve requirements did not generally increase banks’ reserve demand or contract lending because reserve requirements were not binding for most banks. Aggregate effects on credit supply from reserve requirement increases were therefore economically small and statistically zero.

Corporate Leadership and Inherited Beliefs About Gender Roles

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2023 58(8), 3274-3304 open access
Some U.S. firms have women directors and executives, while many do not. We seek to explain this heterogeneity. Using U.S. Census data from 1900, we find that U.S. counties with populations originating from countries with stronger gender-egalitarian beliefs have more women in the labor market and in STEM occupations, and lower gender-pay gaps. Firms headquartered in such counties have more women executives and directors. When firms move to more gender-egalitarian counties, the representation of women on board increases. Our findings are consistent with the idea that inherited beliefs about gender roles impact the labor market and corporate leadership.

When Do Low-Frequency Measures Really Measure Effective Spreads? Evidence from Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2023 36(10), 4190-4232 open access
We present evidence that several popular low-frequency measures of effective spread suffer from a volatility-induced bias and that volatility is the primary driver of the variation of these liquidity proxies. Using data for U.S. equities and major foreign exchange rates, we show that the bias arises when the effective spread is small relative to volatility. We document that the bias has become more acute over time and show that volatility-biased measures fail to replicate some well-known results in empirical finance. We conclude by providing guidance on the choice of low-frequency measures in empirical applications.