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Stress Tests, Entrepreneurship, and Innovation

Review of Finance 2021 25(5), 1609-1637
Abstract This article shows that postcrisis stress tests have negative effects on entrepreneurship and innovation at young firms. Exploiting unique data on business-related home equity loans in Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, I show that stress-tested banks strongly cut small business loans secured by home equity, an important source of financing for entrepreneurs. Lower credit supply leads to a relative decline in entrepreneurship in counties with higher exposure to stress-tested banks. The decline is stronger in sectors with a higher share of young firms using home equity financing, that is, in which the reduction in credit hits hardest. More-exposed counties also see a decline in young firms’ patent applications as well as labor productivity, reflecting young firms’ disproportionate contribution to growth.

Geographic diversification and bank lending during crises

Journal of Financial Economics 2021 140(3), 768-788
We classify a large sample of banks according to the geographic diversification of their international syndicated loan portfolio. We show that diversified banks maintain higher loan supply during banking crises in borrower countries. Positive loan supply effects lead to higher firm investment and employment growth. Diversified banks are stabilizing due to their ability to raise additional funding during times of distress. Distinguishing banks by nationality reveals that diversified domestic banks are a stable source of funding, while foreign banks with little diversification are fickle. Findings suggest that declining financial integration makes countries more vulnerable to local financial shocks.

Regulatory Sandboxes and Fintech Funding: Evidence from the UK

Review of Finance 2024 28(1), 203-233 open access
Abstract Over fifty countries have introduced regulatory sandboxes to foster financial innovation. This article conducts the first evaluation of their ability to improve fintechs’ access to capital and attendant real effects. Exploiting the staggered introduction of the UK sandbox, we establish that firms entering the sandbox see an increase of 15% in capital raised post-entry. Their probability of raising capital increases by 50%. Sandbox entry also has a significant positive effect on survival rates and patenting. Investigating the mechanism, we present evidence consistent with lower asymmetric information and regulatory costs.

Population Aging and Bank Risk-Taking

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(7), 3037-3061 open access
Abstract What are the implications of an aging population for financial stability? To examine this question, we exploit geographic variation in aging across U.S. counties. We establish that banks with higher exposure to aging counties increase loan-to-income ratios. Laxer lending standards lead to higher nonperforming loans during downturns, suggesting higher credit risk. Inspecting the mechanism shows that aging drives risk-taking through two contemporaneous channels: deposit inflows due to seniors’ propensity to save in deposits; and depressed local investment opportunities due to seniors’ lower credit demand. Banks thus look for riskier clients, especially in counties where they operate no branches.

Income Inequality and Job Creation

Review of Economic Studies 2026 open access
Abstract We propose a novel channel through which rising income inequality affects job creation and macroeconomic outcomes. High-income households save relatively more in stocks and bonds but less in bank deposits. A rising top income share thereby increases the relative financing cost for bank-dependent firms, which in turn create fewer jobs compared to other firms. Exploiting variation in top income shares across US states and an instrumental variable strategy, we provide evidence for this channel. We then build a general equilibrium macroeconomic model with heterogeneous households and heterogeneous firms and calibrate it to our empirical estimates. The model shows that the secular rise in top incomes accounts for 13% of the decline in the employment share of small firms since 1980. Through the new channel, rising inequality also reduces the labour share and aggregate output. Model experiments show that ignoring the link between inequality and job creation understates welfare effects of income redistribution.

Financial Crises and Political Radicalization: How Failing Banks Paved Hitler's Path to Power

Journal of Finance 2022 77(6), 3339-3372
ABSTRACT Do financial crises radicalize voters? We study Germany's 1931 banking crisis, collecting new data on bank branches and firm‐bank connections. Exploiting cross‐sectional variation in precrisis exposure to the bank at the center of the crisis, we show that Nazi votes surged in locations more affected by its failure. Radicalization in response to the shock was exacerbated in cities with a history of anti‐Semitism. After the Nazis seized power, both pogroms and deportations were more frequent in places affected by the banking crisis. Our results suggest an important synergy between financial distress and cultural predispositions, with far‐reaching consequences.