Abstract Retail order imbalance positively predicts returns, but on average retail investor trades lose money. Why? Order imbalance tests equal-weighted stocks, but retail purchases concentrate on attention-grabbing stocks that subsequently underperform. Long–short strategies based on extreme quintiles of retail order imbalance earn dismal annualized returns of −14.8% among stocks with heavy retail trading but earn 6.6% among other stocks. Our results reconcile the literatures on the performance of retail investors, the predictive content of retail order imbalance, and attention-induced trading and returns. Smaller retail trades concentrate more on attention-grabbing stocks and perform worse.

Abstract Anecdotal and indirect empirical evidence suggest that excitement and market bubbles are intertwined, such that excitement not only arises during bubbles but may also help fuel them. We directly test the impact of excitement on bubbles in a bubble-prone experimental asset-pricing market ( Capinalp, Porter, and Smith, 2001 ). Prior to trading, participants are assigned to emotion inductions through video clips The results of fifty-five markets show larger asset pricing bubbles in magnitude and amplitude in the excitement treatment relative to a treatment of same valence and lower intensity ( calm ) and a treatment of similar intensity and opposite valence ( fear ).