We identify a comprehensive list of thirty-eight characteristics for predicting cross-sectional FX options returns. We find that three factors—long-term straddle momentum, implied volatility, and illiquidity—can generate economically and statistically significant risk premia not explained by other return predictors. Meanwhile, the predictability of the other characteristics becomes insignificant after accounting for the FX option three-factor model. The significance of the three factors is confirmed through a series of robustness tests covering different data sources, alternative options strategies, diversification effects, bootstrapping, and omitting crisis years.

We contribute to multinationality and real options theories by considering the role of firm heterogeneity in real options awareness for MNCs. We test the joint impact of real options awareness (RO-AWN) and multinationality on firm value using an extensive sample of U.S.-listed international firms over the ten-year period 1996–2005. We show that when a firm's growth options and degree of RO-AWN are considered, multinationality has a significant positive impact on firm value and performance as measured by Tobin's Q, return-on-assets and the 3-year average stock returns. We find that the benefits of multinationality accrue asymmetrically to firms differing in RO-AWN. Managers who are more aware of their corporate real options are able to significantly enhance firm value. Our findings are robust to a range of dataset and measurement specifications, endogeneity issues and controlling for alternative theories of the firm.

This paper examines the relationship between investors' ambiguity in the financial options market and systemic banks' risk. Eliciting ambiguity information from option pricing data on the twelve major U.S. banks between 2003 and 2010, we show that higher behavioral deviations from risk-neutral and Bayesian valuation (i.e., investor ambiguity) are associated with higher systemic banks' downside, market and credit risks. Consistent with behavioral explanations, we confirm the detrimental effect of ambiguity on financial market outcomes and find strong evidence of ambiguity among call and put option holders. Variance decomposition indicates that such a pattern of behavior explains a significant proportion of U.S. banking risk variance. This effect is more pronounced during periods of economic turbulence and bank stress (i.e., the 2007–2009 crisis), and holds after controlling for size, tail risk, implied volatility, and volatility of volatility dynamics. We also document that ambiguity from the financial market has a depressing impact on real economic activity, including capacity utilization, non-farm payrolls and overall economic performance. Our findings are robust to alternative specifications of ambiguity such as multiple priors and expected utilities with uncertain probabilities.