QOME fifteen years ago, the writer had the pleasure of undertaking for the Harvard University Committee on Economic Research (predecessor organization of the Harvard Economic Society) a somewhat comprehensive and detailed study of the subject now under consideration; it appeared in this REVIEW for July I920.' The present purpose is simply to review subsequent developments, and to outline the major forces likely to affect future trends therein. For the present survey, it is not essential to dwell upon the detailed geological, mineralogical, and other considerations which have for so long influenced the history of gold production and of course still do so. A fairly detailed analysis of those considerations both in general, and for particular gold fields is already on record in the earlier study. Another reason why such physical factors can properly be given much less emphasis than before is that geological and mineralogical considerations are in a sense dominated, for the time being at least, by a single economic fact: the depreciation and devaluation of important currencies --among them, the United States dollar and the effect of that movement upon the profit margins of gold mining and refining. To deal comprehensively with these matters of currency depreciation and devaluation, the related matters of inflation of bank credit and price levels, and the curious Warren theory of the relationship between gold production and price levels, would lead us too far afield at this time; and they are therefore dealt with only in such incidental manner as is essential to the immediate question under review. Various analyses and critiques of these related economic matters have appeared elsewhere, particularly in the articles by Professor Bullock and Dr. Tucker, in previous issues of this REVIEW.2

THIS companion article to that on gold, in th( July REviEw,' does not attempt to revie; the silver program in the light of either economi history or economic theory and particularly not in reference to the validity of that prograir as a matter of economic and other policy. Thos( aspects have already been ably presented elsewhere by such writers as Leong, Kemmerer, Graham, Leavens, G. A. Smith, and various others. Rather, the purpose is simply to present a condensed summary of factual, and especially statistical, data bearing upon the silver program. Special attention is devoted to the question ol how much progress toward the objectives of that program has been realized. The leading steps in legislative enactment, and in administrative action thereunder, are treated in a logical rather than the strict chronological order. Certain indirect or implied objectives are given little or no consideration; those reviewed are the ones to which main emphasis has been given in the announced statements of purpose, and are considered under four heads: (I) Metallic monetary reserves; (2) Price; (3) Production; (4) China.

ships, nor have we ever intended to imply that they do. Lack of information even among the authorities on the subject as to the latent merits of employment data and the cyclical behavior of employment itself created a situation which called forth the emphatic statement of those points. Since I92I, employment statistics have received much attention. Numerous writers and observers of business conditions have come to use employment data of various kinds, often expecting too much from them and using them erroneously. Indeed the significance of employment fluctuations cannot fully be realized except by studying their relations to those of other economic factors. The purpose of the present article is briefly to review some of the most important relations. In doing so, we may first present our revised index of employment, to supplement the

THE dual problem of employment and unemployment has recently attracted an unusual amount of attention. In part, the enhanced interest in the problem may be traced to the extraordinarily severe and widespread depression through which all industrial countries of the world have been passing. Interest of this sort, generated by depression, is commonly of a temporary nature -intense while unemployment is severe, but dwindling rapidly as acute unemployment disappears. A second and perhaps more enduring interest in certain problems of employment has sprung up during the past decade. Among business men, elements of cost involved in labor turnover, generally ignored a dozen years ago, have now become so widely recognized as to set a high premium on the stabilization of employment. Again, industrial leaders now see ways in which the employment cycle affects costs of maintenance of plant. In a business depression, underemployment of labor brings with it underemployment of factory space, machinery, railway cars, and many other forms of capital; in a business boom, the efficiency of labor tends to decline, not only because new workers of lower average grade are then hired, but also because indifference to work probably increases in the face of plentiful jobs in other establishments, and because overtiming probably increases industrial fatigue. A third cause for interest in employment lies in the profound influence of employment on the buying power of the population. Any shrinkage of employment tends to curtail the effective demand of the working group involved; this curtailment of demand may lead to further shrinkage of employment in other lines, then to further curtailment of demand, and so on. In every depression this vicious circle rapidly spreads until it involves, directly or indirectly, a very large part of the urban population. Moreover, employment affects buying power not only through its direct influence on the volume of earningsbut also indirectly through its influence on the rise and fall of rates of wages. In short, the three problems of labor turnover, the utilization of capital, and

It is highly probable that our exports will change, as to both character and volume, in the months to come; just as they have already changed since the signing of the armistice. In order to recognize developments as they occur, and to interpret their meaning, it is necessary to study current phenomena by the light of recent experience; furthermore, it is necessary to establish standards for judging month-to-month and seasonal fluctuations. In other words, a background is needed before we can orient ourselves and hold our bearings in the present economic confusion. Our object, then, is to present a general view of the export trade of the United States. To attain that object it is necessary, at some points, to neglect the innumerable lesser articles of commerce and to base our analysis upon the most important individual commodities and groups of commodities. We have found that a selection of one hundred of the most important export commodities contributes from 6o to 74 per cent, a fairly large sample, of the total value of exports. The conclusions of this study, particularly those concerning changes in the quantity of exports, are based upon this sample of one hundred important commodities. Other conclusions, however, are based on analysis of the statistics of five great groups of commodities, and of all exports of domestic merchandise.' The plan of the present investigation has necessarily been largely determined by the nature and grouping of the export statistics given in government publications. Monthly statistics of the value of exports for five great groups of commodities, as well as for all commodities, have been published regularly since July I905. The groups just referred to are the following: