We investigate how private information in stock prices impacts quarterly dividend changes. We find that the positive relationship between past returns and current dividend changes strengthens when returns convey more private information. This finding is robust to the use of several price informativeness measures and the inclusion of managerial private information and stock overvaluation measures. Managers seem to learn new information from stock prices that they use when deciding on their dividend policy. This study highlights private information in stock prices as an important determinant of dividend policy and contributes to the literature on the real effects of financial markets.

This study investigates the impact of excess cash on the liquidity risk faced by investors and their required liquidity premium. It shows that excess cash improves trading continuity and reduces both liquidity risk and the cost of equity capital. These findings are consistent with the view that firms with excess cash attract more traders even when market liquidity dries up. The increase in investors' trading propensity reduces stock price exposure to shocks to market liquidity and the liquidity premium required by investors. We also examine the impact of excess cash on firm value. We show that while the direct effect of excess cash on firm value is negative, its indirect effect through liquidity is significantly positive, indicating that investors are less likely to sanction (or even reward) illiquid firms for holding excess cash. Further analysis suggests that the liquidity benefits of excess cash are greater for financially constrained firms and firms with high growth opportunities. Our results are robust over time, after addressing endogeneity concerns, and to alternative estimation methods and alternative measures of liquidity.

We investigate whether the confidence of management teams, defined as the certainty about handling what one desires to do, affects the capacity of firms to raise external capital. Drawing on psychology research, we run an experiment in which participants are asked to assess the confidence of the management teams of 515 initial coin offerings (ICOs) by appraising their pictures. Controlling for venture and offering characteristics, we find a positive association between confidence and the fundraising amount. The results are robust to alternative estimation methods and other visual traits such as attractiveness and intelligence. Our study highlights the importance of using images as a channel to communicate with prospective investors in alternative finance.