Judicial independence and crash risk: Evidence from a natural experiment in China
This paper examines the impact of judicial independence on stock price crash risk. Employing the establishment of circuit tribunals in China as a shock to judicial independence and a difference-in-differences design, I find that increased judicial independence is associated with lower stock price crash risk. Further analysis suggests that timely disclosure of bad news is a potential mechanism through which judicial independence affects stock price crash risk. Cross-sectional tests indicate that the negative relationship between judicial independence and crash risk is more pronounced for firms located in areas with higher levels of local protectionism, firms with a stronger incentive to hoard more bad news, and firms with weaker external monitoring prior to the circuit tribunal implementation. Taken together, my findings suggest that judicial independence plays a disciplinary role in mitigating firms' bad-news-hoarding activities.