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Firm‐Level Climate Change Exposure

Journal of Finance 2023 78(3), 1449-1498 open access
We develop a method that identifies the attention paid by earnings call participants to firms' climate change exposures. The method adapts a machine learning keyword discovery algorithm and captures exposures related to opportunity, physical, and regulatory shocks associated with climate change. The measures are available for more than 10,000 firms from 34 countries between 2002 and 2020. We show that the measures are useful in predicting important real outcomes related to the net‐zero transition, in particular, job creation in disruptive green technologies and green patenting, and that they contain information that is priced in options and equity markets.

Climate Change, Demand Uncertainty, and Firms' Investments: Evidence from Planned Power Plants

Journal of Finance 2026
How does demand uncertainty affect firms' investment decisions? We examine this question in the context of electricity‐producing firms' planned investments in new power plants. We measure uncertainty about future electricity demand using plausibly exogenous variation in temperature projections across scientific climate models. The results show that uncertainty increases investment in power plants with flexible production technologies, while reducing investment in less flexible technologies. Overall, the net effect of uncertainty on investment is positive when firms have access to flexible investment opportunities. These findings are consistent with models in which production flexibility shapes the investment response to demand uncertainty.

The Rising Tide Lifts Some Interest Rates: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Loan Pricing

Journal of Finance 2026
Banks adjust loan spreads after observing natural disasters linked to climate change. We isolate this updating process by identifying loans to borrowers at risk of, but not directly affected by, such disasters. Loan spreads for these borrowers spike in both primary and secondary markets, while no such updating occurs for non–climate‐related disasters. Evidence suggests a heightened perceived credit risk, which nonetheless cannot fully explain the increase in rates. Taken altogether, increased spreads are explained primarily by salience bias, as they are short‐lived and amplified by media attention. This salience impacts financial decisions at bank‐dependent firms.