Knowledge that Transforms

[This article develops an intertemporal, discrete-time, competitive equilibrium version of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) and explores the econometric implications of this model under various restrictions on investor preferences and on the dynamic behavior of dividends. We describe conditions under which the econometric techniques typically used for estimating and testing the APT can be shown to be consistent with our economic model. We relate our intertemporal version of the APT to the static APT and to Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model.]

[This paper develops and tests arbitrage bounds for a combination of two option spread positions known as a box spread. This strategy involves the simultaneous use of four options and creates a position that is equivalent to riskless lending. The no-arbitrage conditions are compared to existing arbitrage bounds and are tested using Chicago Board Options Exchange data.]

[Futures contracts often include a variety of delivery options that allow participants flexibility in satisfying the contract. These options have the potential to broaden the appeal of the contract. However, if these options are valuable, they may reduce the hedging effectiveness of the contract. This article analyzes the GNMA CDR futures contract that appears to have failed because of flaws in the contract's design. For the first 6 years following its introduction, the contract attracted significant and increasing volume, but, subsequently, the volume declined to almost zero. Over the years during which the volume experienced its most dramatic decline, the Treasury-bond futures contract provided a better hedge for current coupon GNMA securities than did the GNMA CDR futures contract. And, over this same period, the value of the quality option embedded in the contract often exceeded 5 percent of the futures price and reached a level of 19 percent at one point. We interpret the evidence to indicate that the contract failed because the delivery options reduced the hedging effectiveness of the contract for current coupon mortgage securities.]

[This article presents a mean-variance framework for likelihood-ratio tests of asset pricing models. A pricing model is tested by examining the position of one or more reference portfolios in sample mean-standard-deviation space. Included are tests of both single-beta and multiple-beta relations, with or without a riskless asset, using either a general or a specific alternative hypothesis. Tests with a factor that is not a portfolio return are also included. The mean-variance framework is illustrated by testing the zero-beta CAPM, a two-beta pricing model, and the consumption-beta model.]

[Most models of financial structure embody an assumption about financial distress that causes debt to be costly to the issuing firm. This approach has been criticized on the grounds that the assumed costs could be avoided by a costless financial reorganization. In this article we show that despite the possibility of costless reorganization, it may be rational for firms to incur significant costs in the resolution of financial distress. The main assumptions that give rise to our results are the existence of asymmetric information and of judicial discretion that allows courts to impose a reorganization on the claimants of a firm.]

[Technical analysis, or the use of past prices to infer private information, has value in a model in which prices are not fully revealing and traders have rational conjectures about the relation between prices and signals. A two-period dynamic model of equilibrium is used to demonstrate that rational investors use historical prices in forming their demands and to illustrate the sensitivity of the value of technical analysis to changes in the values of the exogenous parameters.]

[When several investors with different risk aversions trade competitively in a capital market, the allocation of wealth fluctuates randomly among them and acts as a state variable against which each market participant will want to hedge. This hedging motive complicates the investors' portfolio choice and the equilibrium in the capital market. This article features two investors, with the same degree of impatience, one of them being logarithmic and the other having an isoelastic utility function. They face one risky constant-return-to-scale stationary production opportunity and they can borrow and lend to and from each other. The behaviors of the allocation of wealth and of the aggregate capital stock are characterized, along with the behavior of the rate of interest, the security market line, and the portfolio holdings.]

[Earnings and dividend announcements on Fridays are much more likely to contain reports of declines and to be associated with negative abnormal returns than those on other weekdays. While Friday reports elicit negative average returns for firms in all size classes, announcements by smaller firms have more negative returns associated with them on the following trading day, suggesting that they are more likely to release reports after close of trading or that prices adjust more slowly to the information in these reports. Nevertheless, a comparison of the average returns by weekday, with and without the Friday announcements, leads us to conclude that these announcements explain a surprisingly small proportion (3.4 percent) of the weekend effect.]

[We investigate several asset pricing models in an international setting. We use data on a large number of assets traded in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France. The models together with the hypothesis of capital market integration imply testable restrictions on multivariate regressions relating asset returns to various benchmark portfolios. We find that multifactor models tend to outperform single-index models in both domestic and international forms especially in their ability to explain seasonality in asset returns. We also find that the behavior of the models is affected by changes in the regulatory environment in international markets.]

[We develop a numerical approximation method for valuing multivariate contingent claims. The approach is based on an n-dimensional extension of the lattice binomial method. Closed-form solutions for the jump probabilities and the jump amplitudes are obtained. The accuracy of the method is illustrated in the case of European options when there are three underlying assets.]