Knowledge that Transforms

A recent literature studies fiscal policy with realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume and the absence of Ricardian equivalence. This literature shows that fiscal policy boosts consumption and is effective: (i) Cumulative fiscal multipliers are above one, and (ii) fiscal policy is fully self-financing. I show this does not extend to small open economies by providing conditions where (i) the cumulative fiscal multiplier is exactly one, and (ii) fiscal deficits are not fully self-financing. This is because the initial debt-fueled rise in consumption is offset by a drop to repay foreign debt. Finally, I provide conditions to overturn this result.

We identify the distributional and quantile marginal treatment effect functions when the outcome is right-censored. Our method requires a conditionally exogenous instrument and random censoring. We propose asymptotically consistent semi-parametric estimators and valid inferential procedures for the target functions . To illustrate, we evaluate the effect of alternative sentences (fines and community service vs. no punishment) on recidivism in Brazil. Our results highlight substantial treatment effect heterogeneity: we find that people whom most judges would punish take longer to recidivate, while people who would be punished only by strict judges recidivate at an earlier date than if they were not punished.

This paper studies how to design experiments when the experimental units are large aggregate entities (e.g., markets), and only one or a small number of units can be treated. We propose a class of non-randomized experimental designs using the synthetic control method, which jointly selects treated units and untreated units to serve as a comparison group. We analyze the properties of estimators under these synthetic control designs and develop new inferential techniques. We show that, in experiments with aggregate units, synthetic control designs can substantially reduce estimation bias relative to randomized experiments.

While the relationship between health insurance coverage and health outcomes has been extensively studied, there is limited evidence on which specific features of insurance matter. We address this gap by leveraging the abrupt termination of Colombia’s largest health insurer and examining the spillover effects on patients who were not enrolled with the terminated insurer. The termination caused a 10% decrease in the breadth of provider networks among incumbent insurers and a 20% increase in mortality rates. We show two mechanisms drove the change in mortality: increased congestion stemming from the surge of enrollees at incumbent insurers and reduced provider network breadth. Insurers narrowed their networks by excluding higher-quality providers that served sicker, more expensive patients, whoin turn died at much higher rates than their counterparts. Findings suggest insurers play a key role in patient health through their provider networks.

Globally, one-third of food is discarded, generating lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions comparable to those from road transport. Further, waste management is among the largest municipal budget items worldwide. Exploiting plausibly exogenous unit-based food waste tax expansions in South Korea, I find that the tax substantially reduces food waste by discouraging excessive grocery purchases. Households sustain food intake despite buying less, but at the cost of additional time spent on meal production. Nonpecuniary motivations appear central to the policy’s e!ectiveness, and the tax is likely welfare-improving because more e"cient food use not only reduces externalities but also offsets time costs.

We study the effect of the MeToo movement on reports of sex crimes to the police. Using multiple empirical strategies, including a triple-difference design comparing crime types across countries and over time, we find that the movement increased reported sex crimes by approximately 10%. Analyzing incident-level US data, we find that the movement also increased arrests and had similar effects across racial and socioeconomic groups. The evidence suggests that the increase reflects a higher propensity to report sex crimes rather than an increase in their incidence. Our results demonstrate that social movements can rapidly and persistently change high-stakes personal decisions.

Current Editorial Board:Treb Allen, Dartmouth CollegeDmitry Arkhangelsky, CEMFIMichael Dinerstein, Duke UniversityWill Dobbie (Co-Chair), Harvard UniversityScott Kominers, Harvard UniversityRuixue Jia, University of California–San DiegoPaulina Oliva, University of Southern CaliforniaKosali Simon, Indiana UniversityTavneet Suri (Co-Chair), Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyStephen Terry, University of MichiganRecently Retired from the Editorial Board:Pierre Azoulay, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyMarcella Alsan (Co-Chair), Stanford UniversityRaymond Fisman (Co-Chair), Boston UniversityPeter Hull, Brown UniversityTable 1–Manuscripts Submitted and PublishedThis table shows the trends in papers submitted and published over the past five years. Submission numbers declined by 10% in 2022 and an additional 4% in 2023. Submission numbers then increased 13% in 2024 and 8% in 2025. The number of published papers increased between 2021 and 2025 due to the publication of larger issues.Table 2–Status of Manuscripts by Year of SubmissionThis table shows the status of manuscripts submitted over the past five years. The percent of papers summarily rejected in 2025 was at its highest in the past five years at 67%. The percent of papers sent out for review but ultimately rejected in 2025 was at its lowest over the past five years at 24%. Acceptance rates range from 4% to 10% of papers submitted. Papers submitted in 2025 have not had enough time to accurately reflect the acceptance rate.Table 3–Decision Time for Manuscripts Sent for Review This table reports the decision time for manuscripts sent out to referees for review over the past five years. The average decision time for manuscripts that were sent to referees has remained steady, ranging from 86 to 95 days.Table 4–Distribution of First Decision Times, by Submission Year This table includes all first-round manuscripts submissions and shows the distribution of decision times in monthly increments for the past five years. This table also reflects the improvement in the journal's decision turnaround times. In 2025, 87% of manuscripts received a decision within three months and 99% within six months.Table 5–Subject Matter of Published Manuscripts, 2025This table shows the distribution of subject matter of manuscripts published in 2025. They covered a variety of subjects, but the most common subjects were microeconomics, mathematical and quantitative methods, and labor and demographic economics. Table 1.Manuscripts Submitted and Published 2021–2025YearSubmittedPublished20211,6746520221,5119020231,44510720241,63611320251,775121Table 3.Decision Time in Days for Manuscripts Sent for ReviewYearFraction Summarily RejectedAverage Decision TimeMedian Decision Time75th Percentile90th PercentileNumber of Manuscripts Sent to Referees202160%8684100118657202260%9594109137649202355%9487112144641202465%8975109165558202567%8978113139577Decision times are for manuscripts sent out for review. Percentages are rounded to the nearest integer. Data were inputed for 63 manuscripts submitted in 2025 that did not have a decision yet.Table 4.Distribution of First Decision Times, by Submission Year20212022202320242025Months to ResponseMonthly PercentCumulative PercentMonthly PercentCumulative PercentMonthly PercentCumulative PercentMonthly PercentCumulative PercentMonthly PercentCumulative Percent1626258585555666667672466462863107697632086188019821288118741197149499159369352994986973965986<1991992992981997<199<199<199199<1998<1100<1100<199<199<1999010001000100<199<1100100100010001000100010011010001000100010001001201000100010001000100Percentages are rounded to the nearest integer. Data were inputed for 63 manuscripts submitted in 2025 that did not have a decision yet.Table 5.Subject Matter of Published Manuscripts, 2025JELSubject CategoryAGeneral Economics and Teaching0BMethodology/History of Thought0CMathematical and Quantitative Methods20DMicroeconomics33EMacro and Monetary Economics7FInternational Economics8GFinancial Economics0HPublic Economics1IHealth, Education and Welfare11JLabor and Demographic Economics17KLaw and Economics1LIndustrial Organization2MBusiness Economics0NEconomic History2OEconomic Development13PEconomic Systems0QAgricultural/Natural Resources3RUrban, Rural, and Regional Economics3ZMiscellaneous and Special Topics0Derived from JEL codes reported for each manuscript for the 2025 publication year.

Televised debates between presidential candidates are often regarded as the exemplar of persuasive communication. Yet, recent evidence from Le Pennec and Pons (2023) indicates that they may not sway voters as strongly as popular belief suggests. We revisit their findings through the lens of the persuasion rate and introduce a robust framework that does not require exogenous treatment, parallel trends, or credible instruments. Instead, we leverage plausible monotonicity assumptions to partially identify the persuasion rate and related parameters. Our results reaffirm that the sharp upper bounds on the persuasive effects of TV debates remain modest.

As manufacturing firms expand globally, business services such as advertising and legal support become essential for entering new markets. Exploiting exogenous demand shocks, we document that French manufacturers increasingly outsource market-access services as they enter more destinations. We develop a theory of market-access costs in which firms weigh the managerial strain of internal provision against adaptation costs of outsourcing—a mechanism that receives empirical sup-port. Further explorations reveal that outsourcing market-access services helps explain variation in access costs related to gravity and extended gravity, affects both sunk and fixed export costs, and substantially amplifies the variety gains from trade liberalization.

We document a series of stylized facts about how firms seek to protect the rents from innovation, using a large nationally representative survey of U.S. businesses over the period 2008-2015. Just 1.4 percent of firms obtain patents, but these patenting firms account for 87 percent of R&D investment. Firms consider utility patents less important than other forms of IP protection, like trade secrets, trademarks, and copyrights. Firm industry and size are strongly correlated with firms’ use of all types of intellectual property, but firm-age is not. Implications for innovation research and policy are discussed.