Knowledge that Transforms

Many and varied factors have been assigned as the cause of crises. Some writers, it seems, have mistaken effect for cause. Others have singled out one factor as the cause, ignoring others of equal or greater importance. Still others have recognized the com? plexity of a crisis situation and given recognition to many factors, but one places emphasis on one, another on another. Indeed it is probable that the problem in connection with crises now is not altogether the development of new theories. We have theories in abundance. Instead, it is to determine the degree of truth in each, for most theories of crises appear to have some scientific foundation, and then to determine the relative importance of each. After this has been done there remains the task of combining these theories into a harmonious whole. The situation would be less complicated if writers on the subject of crises avoided the use of vague or poorly defined terms.

In the absence of very definite records the earliest history of Spanish commerce and industry remains a subject for speculation and inference. As far back as twenty and thirty centuries before Christ, some manner of trade and commerce seems to have existed in what is at the present date the Spanish peninsula.' There is, however, nothing approaching definiteness in this regard until nearly ten centuries before the Christian era, when it was recorded that King Solomon's "ships went to Tarshish . ... every three years once . . . bringing old and silver.' 2 The same chronicle speaks of another king of Judea who for some iniquity was by the act of God frustrated in his plans of an expedition to Tarshish.3 But perhaps of greater importance were the Phoenician merchants who first opened the trade of the Mediterranean sea and visited the Spanish provinces most frequently.4 They are said to have taken possession of what is now western Andalusia in the tenth century B.C., and there is little doubt of their having explored the coasts of the Spanish peninsula during the later centuries. It is true that the Phoenician merchants of this period were primarily engaged in piracy, but they were not satisfied by capturing men and merchandise only. They established trading-posts and warehouses at Algeciras, Malaga, Cadiz, and Seville and named the peninsula Span or Spania, which means hidden.5 The Phoenicians, like the agents of the Judean rulers, visited the shores of Spain for the gold, silver, copper, and tin that were found there. According to Diodorus it was this abundance of gold and silver that furnished Carthage with the sinews of war against Rome at a later period.6 But the precious metals were by no means the sole products of Spain. Wine, wool, cloth, and

Granted that unemployment insurance is necessary, is it possible? For many years this question was asked by most authoritative students of the subject, and the answer was not always favorable. Various experiments were made by municipalities and voluntary organizations in different countries, and some of them suffered a dismal failure. The establishment of a national compulsory unemployment insurance system in Great Britain through the National Insurance Act of I9II seems to settle the abstract question of possibility. Surely that which exists is possible, aside from the degree of success it may have or failure it may suffer. But the very fact of this prolonged iscussion, through almost two decades, of the general timidity in making experiments, inthe face of the rapid development of other forms of social insurance, and of the failure of several of these experiments-though the word "failure" could not be applied to any other steps in this field of social legislation-is evidence that there are special difficulties in the path of unemployment insurance which are not met with in the case of accidents or disease. In what do these difficulties consist? It is the theory of insurance science that any risk may be insured provided there is any regularity at all about its occurrence. It is the pride of that famous English insurance institution, Lloyds, that it offers to insure against any risk, even of an unusual kind, which does not seem to manifest any regularity. Unemployment is a risk. It demonstrates a fair degree of regularity both in its dependence upon trade and in its time fluctuations, whether in annual or longer cycles. When the whole problem was investigated very thoroughly by the Imperial Statistical Office of Germany, in I906, the conclusion was reached that there were no insurmountable t chnical obstacles for the development of an unemployment insurance system. The real difficulty was stated to be the absence of a simple test of unemployment. With comparatively few exceptions, the presence or absence of an accidental injury may be easily determined. It is

Louis; the channel of the Mississippi River between St. Louis and the Gulf composes the remainder of the route. Beginning at Lake Michigan and the mouth of the Chicago River, in the very heart of the city of Chicago, the route follows the Chicago River for 6.25 miles from Lake Michigan to Robey Street, the Chicago Sani? tary and Ship Canal for 32.35 miles to the junction with the Des Plaines River and the Illinois and Michigan Canal at Joliet,1 the Des Plaines River for 15.73 miles to the junction of the Kankakee,2 the Illinois River for 273 miles to the Mississippi, and the Mississippi for 1,332 miles3 to the Gulf of Mexico.4 The total distance between Chicago

The present movement of freight by water on the Lakes-to-theGulf route is the chief consideration of this chapter. Other writers have shown the decline of river traffic on the Mississippi,' and it appears to be quite well known that the important commerce of former days has disappeared. The question that is uppermost in the minds of those giving thought to transportation on the Mississippi is: Will the river again become an important waterway? The freight movement is discussed for the several sections of the route, beginning at Chicago. Table VIII shows the shipments and receipts of freight at the Port of Chicago for the calendar year I9IO. The lake commerce of the port is divided between the two harbors.2 The iron ore, which comprises approximately one-half the total weight of the shipments and receipts, is discharged almost entirely at the Calumet Harbor; while the general merchandise, the fruits and vegetables, and the lumber come largely to the Chicago Harbor. The lake commerce of Chicago should be important for several reasons. Chicago is located on the route of dense traffic between the seaboard and the West, and the broad open waterway of the