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The Janus face of bank geographic complexity

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 134, 106040 open access
We study the relationship between bank geographic complexity and risk using a unique dataset of 96 global bank holding companies (BHCs) over 2008–2016. From data on the affiliate network of internationally active banking entities, we construct a measure of geographic coverage and complexity for each BHC. We find that higher geographic complexity heightens banks’ capacity to absorb local economic shocks, reducing their risk. However, higher geographic complexity can also help banks soften the impact of prudential regulation, increasing their risk. Bank geographic complexity therefore has a Janus face, decreasing some but increasing other aspects of bank risk.

Why Did Bank Stocks Crash during COVID-19?

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(9), 2627-2684 open access
A two-sided “credit-line channel”—relating to drawdowns and repayments—explains the severe drop and partial subsequent recovery in bank stock prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. Banks with greater exposure to undrawn credit lines saw larger stock price declines but performed better outside of crises periods. Despite deposit inflows, high drawdowns led to reduced bank lending, suggestive of capital encumbrance upon drawdowns. Repayments of credit lines unencumbered capital which explains the stock price recovery starting Q2 2020. Bank provision of credit lines resembles writing put options on aggregate risk, and we propose how to incorporate this feature into bank stress tests.