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Have Instrumental Variables Brought Us Closer to the Truth

The Review of Corporate Finance Studies 2017 6(2), 127-140 open access
A survey of 255 papers that rely on the instrumental variable (IV) approach for identifying causal effects published in the “Big Three” finance journals reveals that IV estimates are larger than their corresponding uninstrumented estimates in about 80% of the studies, regardless of whether the potential endogeneity is expected to create a positive or negative bias based on economic reasoning. The magnitude of the IV estimates is, on average, nine times of that of the uninstrumented estimates even when economic insights do not suggest a downward bias of the latter. This study provides several explanations to the “implausibly large” IV estimates in finance research, and proposes best practices for identification-conscientious researchers. Received January 20, 2017; editorial decision April 7, 2017 by Editor Gregor Matvos

Trading ahead of barbarians’ arrival at the gate: insider trading on noninside information

Review of Finance 2026 30(3), 921-948 open access
Privately informed about firm fundamentals, corporate insiders detect activism-motivated trades better than other traders. This article solves the model of this novel form of insider trading motivated by noninsider information and presents empirical evidence. Corporate insiders preserve their ownership (restraining from selling or buying more) before activist interventions go public to benefit from price appreciation and to defend their private benefits of control. Surveillance technology facilitates response to predisclosure activist trading, especially when positive information about firm fundamentals is absent, supporting the mechanism that insiders attribute order flows to activist interest when speculation on fundamentals can be ruled out.

Dissemination, Publication, and Impact of Finance Research: When Novelty Meets Conventionality

Review of Finance 2023 27(1), 79-141 open access
Using numeric and textual data extracted from over 50,000 finance articles in Social Science Research Network (SSRN) during 2001–19, we examine the relationship between measured qualities and a paper’s readership, eventual outlet, and impact. Conventionality (semantic similarity with existent research) helps boost readership and publication prospects. However, novelty in the forms of emerging topics and databases are associated with better publishing outcomes. Studies that do not easily map into established finance subfields or that introduce nonfinance elements face a higher hurdle. Finally, papers whose research questions span multiple fields are a hard sell, but those building on prior knowledge from multiple fields are valued.

The Real Effects of Hedge Fund Activism: Productivity, Asset Allocation, and Labor Outcomes

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(10), 2723-2769 open access
This paper studies the long-term effect of hedge fund activism on firm productivity using plant-level information from the U.S. Census Bureau. A typical target firm improves production efficiency in the 3 years after intervention, with stronger improvements in business strategy-oriented interventions. Plants sold after intervention improve productivity significantly under new ownership, suggesting that capital redeployment is an important channel for value creation. Employees of target firms experience stagnation in work hours and wages despite an increase in labor productivity. Additional tests refute alternative explanations attributing the improvement to mean reversion, management's voluntary reforms, industry consolidation shocks, or activists' stock-picking abilities.

How does hedge fund activism reshape corporate innovation?

Journal of Financial Economics 2018 130(2), 237-264 open access
This paper studies how hedge fund activism impacts corporate innovation. Firms targeted by activists improve their innovation efficiency over the five-year period following hedge fund intervention. Despite a tightening in research and development (R&D) expenditures, target firms increase innovation output, as measured by both patent counts and citations, with stronger effects among firms with more diversified innovation portfolios. Reallocation of innovative resources, redeployment of human capital, and change to board-level expertise all contribute to improve target firms’ innovation. Additional tests help isolate the effect of intervention from alternative explanations, including mean reversion, sample attrition, voluntary reforms, or activist stock-picking.

The Real Effect of Sociopolitical Racial/Ethnic Animus: Mutual Fund Manager Performance during AAPI Hate

Review of Financial Studies 2026 open access
During the 2020–2021 “AAPI Hate,” mutual funds led by female managers perceived as East Asian underperformed relative to other female managers. This effect is stronger in states with higher anti-Asian animus, among more actively managed funds, and when these managers hold sole or senior roles. Factors concurrent with COVID-19, including childcare challenges, concerns for overseas families, marketplace and workplace discrimination, and exposure to the Chinese economy, cannot explain the effect. Underperformance is traceable to poor stock picking due to impairments in generating private information. Racial-ethnic animosity, even outside workplace or marketplace, hinders productivity and decision-making in high-skill professions.

Feedback Effects, Asymmetric Trading, and the Limits to Arbitrage

American Economic Review 2015 105(12), 3766-3797 open access
We analyze strategic speculators’ incentives to trade on information in a model where firm value is endogenous to trading, due to feedback from the financial market to corporate decisions. Trading reveals private information to managers and improves their real decisions, enhancing fundamental value. This feedback effect has an asymmetric effect on trading behavior: it increases (reduces) the profitability of buying (selling) on good (bad) news. This gives rise to an endogenous limit to arbitrage, whereby investors may refrain from trading on negative information. Thus, bad news is incorporated more slowly into prices than good news, potentially leading to overinvestment.

What Explains Differences in Finance Research Productivity during the Pandemic?

Journal of Finance 2021 76(4), 1655-1697 open access
Based on a survey of American Finance Association members, we analyze how demographics, time allocation, production mechanisms, and institutional factors affect research production during the pandemic. Consistent with the literature, research productivity falls more for women and faculty with young children. Independently, and novel, extra time spent on teaching (much more likely for women) negatively affects research productivity. Also novel, concerns about feedback, isolation, and health have large negative research effects, which disproportionately affect junior faculty and PhD students. Finally, faculty who express greater concerns about employers’ finances report larger negative research effects and more concerns about feedback, isolation, and health.

The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers

Journal of Finance 2012 67(3), 933-971 open access
Using mutual fund redemptions as an instrument for price changes, we identify a strong effect of market prices on takeover activity (the “trigger effect”). An interquartile decrease in valuation leads to a seven percentage point increase in acquisition likelihood, relative to a 6% unconditional takeover probability. Instrumentation addresses the fact that prices are endogenous and increase in anticipation of a takeover (the “anticipation effect”). Our results overturn prior literature that finds a weak relation between prices and takeovers without instrumentation. These findings imply that financial markets have real effects: They impose discipline on managers by triggering takeover threats.