Knowledge that Transforms

This paper examines the role of marital connections in models of intertemporal household behavior. Recent work by Bernheim and Bagwell implies that such connections might vastly expand the scope of neutrality results. The present work studies several formulations including not only marriage but also descriptions of how people choose spouses. Purposeful choices lead to assortative mating. All versions of the framework tend to lead away from cross-sectional neutrality results. The analysis suggests that one may be able to derive a solution for a parthenogenetic model and then interpret it as consistent with Nash equilibrium behavior in a world with marriage.

The wide cross-country disparity in rates of economic growth is the most puzzling feature of the development process. This paper describes a class of models in which this heterogeneity in growth experiences can be the result of cross-country differences in government policy. These differences can also create incentives for labor migration from slow-growing to fast-growing countries. In the models considered, growth is endogeneous despite the absence of increasing returns because there is a "core" of capital goods that can be produced without the direct or indirect contribution of factors that cannot be accumulated, such as land.

This paper provides an analysis of the predictable components of monthly common stock and bond portfolio returns. Most of the predictability is associated with sensitivity to economic variables in a rational asset pricing model with multiple betas. The stock market risk premimum is the most important for capturing predictable variation of the stock portfolios, while premiums associated with interest rate risks capture predictability of the bond returns. Time variation in the premium for beta risk is more important than changes in the betas.

Rational Choice--the published record of a conference on economics and psychology--frames the issues as a contest between economic theory and the falsifying evidence from psychology. According to a third perspective, that of experimental economics, most standard theory provides a correct first approximation in predicting motivated behavior in laboratory experimental markets, but the theory is incomplete, particularly in articulating convergence processes in time and in ignoring decision cost. This view has roots in the work of Herbert Simon and Sidney Siegel, but it is not plainly represented in contemporary research in economic pyschology.

Differences in local fiscal conditions generate compensating differentials across local land and labor markets just as we have long known amenities to do. Thus the fiscal climate affects the quality of life across metropolitan areas. We present new results showing that intercity fiscal differentials are nearly as important as amenity differentials in determining the quality of life across urban areas. The paper also investigates the sensitivity of the quality-of-life rankings with respect to assumptions about the nature of the marginal entrant. We estimate a random effects model to account for city-specific error components in the housing and wage regressions. Those results indicate that the standard errors of previous OLS-based quality-of-life rankings have been biased downward substantially. More encompassing data on city traits as well as superior controls for worker and housing quality are needed to increase the precision of quality-of-life estimates.

In this paper we address the question of whether wages are affected by labor market conditions in a manner more consistent with a contract approach than with a standard spot market model. From a simple implicit contract model, we derive implications about the links between wages and past labor market conditions. Using individual data from the Current Population Survey and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that an implicit contract model with costless mobility describes these links better than either a simple spot market model or an implicit contract model with costly mobility.

This paper investigates the testable restrictions on the time-series behavior of consumption and asset returns implied by a representative agent model in which intertemporal preferences are represented by utility functions that generalize conventional, time-additive, expected utility. The model based on these preferences allows a clearer separation of observable behavior attributable to risk aversion and to intertemporal substitution. Further, it nests the predictions of both the consumption CAPM and the static CAPM, and it allows direct tests of the expected utility hypothesis. We find that the performance of the non-expected utility model and tests of the expected utility hypothesis are sensitive to the choice of both consumption measure and instrumental variables.

The self-screening properties of initial eligibility determination, a mechanism often under the control of the administrators of targeted transfer programs, are derived and the use of this mechanism in the social security disability insurance system is explored empirically. An increase in the rigor of initial eligibility screening may discourage potential applicants because they are unaware of appeal prospects and because the eligibility decision delay is lengthened, as denied applicants are forced to appeal their claims. In the disability program, a 10 percent increase in the initial denial rate induces a 4 percent decrease in applications. Self-selection is nonperverse.

Purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics. Empirically, it is also one of the most hotly contested. Numerous recent studies, for example, have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post-Bretton Woods float and have reached different conclusions. We assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons. First, the post-1973 data contain, by definition, only a very limited amount of the low-frequency information relevant for examination of long-run parity. Second, the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to admissible low-frequency dynamics. Both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper, with dramatic results. We construct a new data set of 16 real exchange rates covering more than a century of the classic gold standard period, and we study deviations from parity using long-memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean reversion. For each real exchange rate, we find that purchasing power parity holds in the long run.