Knowledge that Transforms

[Effective marginal tax rates on labor income for the "representative" Swede have increased from roughly 50 percent in 1959 to 80 percent today. The effects of this increase in the level of taxation are examined using a two-sector model parameterized to correspond to the Swedish economy. The model contains a single household which allocates labor to either taxed (essentially market) or untaxed (largely household) uses. The estimated long-run effects are sufficient to explain up to 75 percent of the recent decline in the measured growth rate of the Swedish GNP. Calculations of total tax revenues are also derived from the model. These peak when the tax rate is approximately 70 percent, indicating that Sweden is presently on the downward-sloping portion of its "Laffer Curve."]

With imperfect job information flows, it is plausible that the distribution of job offerings becomes more attractive when there are more vacancies and more unemployed. With word-of-mouth communication, this condition is derived. Given this condition, steady-state equilibrium is not efficient, with welfare increased by the introduction of unemployment compensation even though all agents are risk neutral. In this way workers become more selective in the jobs they accept.

This paper develops and estimates a model of the joint determination of the exchange rate, international reserves, and the rate of inflation under a crawling-peg system. The framework presented, which is an extension of previous work on the monetary approach, generates short-run deviations from purchasing power parity that occur simultaneously with movements in both international reserves and the exchange rate. The model is estimated by full-information maximum likelihood on the basis of quarterly data for Brazil.

[The paper analyzes the role of current income in providing new information about future income and thus signalling changes in permanent income. Using time-series analysis to quantify the revision in permanent income induced by an innovation in the current income process, a structural econometric model of consumption is developed. The rejection of the joint rational expectations-permanent income hypothesis is both statistically and quantitatively significant. The paper also shows that the test of the rational expectations-permanent income hypothesis proposed by Hall is based on the reduced form of this structural model and reconciles Sargent's consumption paper with Hall's.]

This paper examines the market for human capital created by the institution of indentured servitude in colonial America. The indenture system allowed English emigrants to obtain passage to the colonies by selling claims on their future labor. With the size of the debt approximately equal for all emigrants, the length of the term for which a servant was bound is predicted to have varied inversely with expected productivity in the colonies. Analysis of two collections of contracts made in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries supports the prediction. Age, skill, and literacy were negatively related to length of indenture. Women received shorter terms than men at young ages, while servants bound for the West Indies and those bound in periods of high colonial demand for labor also received reductions.

The case for positive time preference is absolutely compelling, unless there is an infinite time horizon with the expectation of unending technological advance combined with what we call "drastically diminishing marginal utility." This finding holds both in the positive and normative senses. A corollary is that savings are interest elastic.

The demand for capital is not systematically related to either the level or the rate of change of "effective" income tax rates on corporate capital assets. Rising inflation during the last 10 years has raised the user cost of capital for durable assets relative to that for short-lived assets even though this inflation has raised effective tax rates for more durable capital less than for short-lived assets. Even with replacement-cost depreciation allowances, the level and pattern of investment incentives probably will continue to vary with the inflation rate.

The theoretical analysis focuses on the distinction between temporary and permanent movements in government purchases. Under plausible conditions, the temporary case involves an output response that is positive, less than one-to-one with the change in government purchases, and larger than that generated by an equal-sized, but permanent, shift in purchase. The equilibrium real rate of return rise in the temporary case, but changes little in the permanent one. Defense purchases are divided empirically into "permanent" and "temporary" components by considering the role of (temporary) wars. No temporary shifts in nondefense purchases were isolated. Empirical results verify an expansionary output effect for temporary purchases that exceeds that of permanent purchases. The results for some other expectational hypotheses are found to be generally supportive of the theory.