Knowledge that Transforms

Using Spanish confidential supervisory data, this paper examines the effect of the corporate structure of banking group's affiliates (organizational complexity), of their business lines (business complexity) and their locations (geographic complexity) on bank's risk. We document that greater complexity in the organizational and business domain gives rise to higher risk, while greater geographic complexity generates lower risk. Next, we find that effective control is a determinant of the relationship between risk and complexity. We study this effect in two ways: i) comparing the impact of complexity under varying intensity of legal control; and ii) analysing mergers that confer different degrees of control over group's affiliates. We find that when there is no effective control, such as in multi-group affiliates, complexity – no matter type – gives rise to higher risk. Additionally, when there is no transfer of control in a merger, the resulting increased complexity does not generate a change in risk.

Do households react to negative non-financial and climate related information about their financial institutions? Using branch level data for the United States, I show that banks that financed the highly controversial Dakota Access Pipeline experienced significant decreases in deposit growth. These effects were greater in localities with higher support for the protests and higher environmental awareness. Data suggests that locally oriented banks were among the main beneficiaries of this depositor movement. Overall, this paper adds significantly to our understanding on the non-financial preferences of household financial investment decisions and climate finance debate.

This paper extends the signaling hypothesis by investigating the signal strength adjustment behavior with respect to the announcement of an open market repurchase (OMR). Given that an OMR is a non-binding commitment for the repurchasing firm, the stock market would likely scrutinize the credibility of the undervaluation signal from the OMR announcement of the firm. This may compel the manager to engage in various mechanisms in order to strengthen the undervaluation signal of the OMR announcement. This paper investigates whether managers of repurchasing firms would modify the terms of the OMR program when the simultaneous announcements of bad news threaten the credibility of the signal from the OMR announcements. Consistent with our signal strength adjustment hypothesis, we find that managers of repurchasing firms increase (shorten) the repurchase plan size (period) with the magnitude of bad news in the simultaneous announcements. Our results also show that the stock market reacts positively to the signal strength adjustments, indicating that they are informative to the market. These results hold after using various techniques to control for sample selection bias.

This paper provides a unique snapshot of the asset exposures of EU banks to shadow banking entities within the global financial system. Drawing on a rich and novel dataset, we show that 60% of the EU banks’ exposures are towards non-EU entities, particularly US-domiciled shadow banking entities. We assess the degree of concentration across different types of shadow banking counterparties. We show that while banks’ exposures are diversified at the individual level, this diversification leads to high overlap across different types of shadow banking entities, with consequent systemic risk. We also examine how bank- and country-level characteristics relate to the exposures of EU banks to shadow banking entities. Our results emphasise the importance of monitoring these cross-border and cross-sector exposures and closing remaining data gaps.

I analyze 70,000 transactions by retail impact investors on a peer-to-peer lending platform that intermediates loans to firms in low-income countries. Loans pay interest to investors and publicize indicators of expected social impact. Financial returns significantly influence investors’ decisions: a one percentage point increase in the interest rate increases funding speed seven-fold, investment probability two-fold and transaction size by 122 Euro. Expected social impact influences investors’ perception but has no influence (for female empowerment, employees and beneficiaries) or limited influence (for turnover) on investors’ funding decisions. When all available loans pay the same interest rates, female borrowers - but not firms with many employees or beneficiaries - are more likely to be chosen, suggesting that variation in financial returns can crowd out salient dimensions of social impact. The study implies that peer-to-peer lending platforms should function as gatekeepers of social impact and cannot outsource the evaluation of social impact to retail impact investors.

Recent experimental studies illustrate the influence of price path, particularly the ‘non-straight’ price path, on several aspects of investor decision-making. The paper employs an empirical proxy for price path based on convexity and demonstrates that price convexity significantly impacts the selling decisions with transaction-level data. We find that a price path that is likely to signal a favourable (unfavourable) price movement in the future lowers (heightens) the selling propensity of traders in stocks. The findings suggest that likely expectations about future price movement, as could be inferred from the experienced price path, significantly influence the trading decisions of retail traders.

We examine the relation between an institution's stock ownership and its tendency to support corporate management through the “Say-on-Pay” (SOP) executive compensation vote. Institutional advisors are more likely to oppose management on the SOP vote for their small-scale investments, i.e., investments that comprise a small fraction of an institution's aggregate stockholdings across its funds, or, alternatively, investments that comprise a small fraction of the total equity market capitalization of a corporation. We find evidence indicating that this voting pattern reflects an institutions’ overall sentiment for the stock, and is particularly prevalent when institutions have limited attention to monitor their investments.

Propelled by the recent financial product innovations involving derivatives, securitization and mortgages, commercial banks are becoming more complex, branching out into many “nontraditional” banking operations beyond issuance of loans. This broadening of operational scope in a pursuit of revenue diversification may be beneficial if banks exhibit scope economies. The existing (two-decade-old) empirical evidence lends no support for such product-scope-driven cost economies in banking, but it is greatly outdated and, surprisingly, there has been little (if any) research on this subject despite the drastic transformations that the U.S. banking industry has undergone over the past two decades in the wake of technological advancements and regulatory changes. Commercial banks have significantly shifted towards nontraditional operations, making the portfolio of products offered by present-day banks very different from that two decades ago. In this paper, we provide new and more robust evidence about scope economies in U.S. commercial banking. We improve upon the prior literature not only by analyzing the most recent data and accounting for banks’ nontraditional off-balance sheet operations, but also in multiple methodological ways. To test for scope economies, we estimate a flexible time-varying-coefficient panel-data quantile regression model which accommodates three-way heterogeneity across banks. Our results provide strong evidence in support of significantly positive scope economies across banks of virtually all sizes. Contrary to earlier studies, we find no empirical corroboration for scope diseconomies.

How does the microstructure of an over-the-counter market respond in a time of stress? We test several hypotheses of network-based models by analysing the 2015 crash of the Swiss franc-euro FX derivatives market. To do so we employ unique data at transaction and counterparty identity level, and a new analytical framework that uses the trading network topology to segment the market into a multi-layered structure. We document limited intermediation by inner-core nodes, in particular dealers with loss making outstanding positions. Clients in greater need of trading were less likely to trade, pointing to a supply driven liquidity shortage. However, more central and better connected clients were able to access the market sooner and at better prices than more peripheral clients, lending support to theory predictions that network centrality matters for sourcing liquidity and execution quality.

We document a reduction in both the level and cross-sectional dispersion of systematic risk in the target-date fund (TDF) market after 2008, which resulted in better performance of TDFs during the COVID-19 selloff compared to the 2008 selloff and a reduction in TDF return dispersion. We find that the shift is more pronounced in close-to-retirement funds and driven by the TDF series investing more in equities in the early period, consistent with TDFs catering to the market demand for lower risk exposure after the 2008 crisis. In addition, TDF systematic risk shifters do not exhibit more idiosyncratic risk-taking.