Abstract We reconsider the excess volatility puzzle through the lens of a model in which agents believe they can predict dividend growth when in fact they cannot. Besides excess volatility in the time series, the model explains the value premium, and the explanatory power of the value factor. In support of the model, we show that analysts’ earnings forecasts align with market valuation and that analysts are far more optimistic about growth stocks than they are about value stocks. Using both survey and price data, we show that the same mechanism can explain the excess returns earned by investing in high-interest rate currencies. (JEL G12, G15, G41)

Do stocks bear a crash risk premium? We examine the empirical performance of the tail index measure from Kelly and Jiang (2014). We find that the tail index explains the cross-section of the discount rate component of returns, but not the cash-flow component. Moreover, in the time series the tail index is uncorrelated with theoretically motivated measures of aggregate uncertainty and systemic risk. In contrast, the tail index Granger causes and is Granger caused by the level of the term structure, and the slope of the term structure Granger causes tail risk. Received June 22, 2016; editorial decision December 23, 2017 by Editor Raman Uppal.

Bank managers can buy risky assets through a regulated bank and through an off-balance sheet special purpose vehicle (SPV). The choice of the preferred entity depends on whether bank managers can lower the cost of SPV funding by guaranteeing SPV returns with bank proceeds. When there are no guarantees, using the SPV is more profitable for high levels of the minimum capital requirement, in which case the SPV crowds out the bank. Contrary, when bank managers guarantee SPV returns, the bank needs to operate for the SPV to take advantage of recourse to the bank’s balance sheet also when the capital requirement is high. The bank and the SPV intermediation become complements.

We examine whether banks better protect themselves against risk-shifting as compared to non-bank lenders by comparing risk management polices across firms that borrow from different lenders using a unique, hand-collected data set of hedging and borrowing practices. Consistent with banks being effective monitors, we find hedging is positively associated with the proportion of bank debt amongst firms with large risk-shifting incentives. We present descriptive evidence showing that banks use covenants as one of the channels to mitigate risk-shifting.

This paper documents a new channel for rating-based bond market segmentation, which, in contrast to prior research, is based on nonregulatory investment management practices. A 2005 Lehman Brothers index redefinition provides a quasinatural experiment in which a number of previously high-yield split-rated bonds were mechanically relabeled as investment grade. Although their regulatory standing was unaffected, these bonds had abnormal yield declines of 21 basis points. These valuation changes can be traced to buying by asset-class-sensitive institutional investors for whom these bonds became investable. Reputation, regulation, indexation, and liquidity cannot explain the observed price and trading patterns. (JEL G12, G14)

Abstract Between 2010 and 2020, the U.S. coal industry experienced a 50% drop in production, employment, and active mines, driven by regulatory factors and technological innovation in alternative energy sources. We study the impact of this energy transition on household employment, wages, migration, and home ownership in affected communities. Compared to non-coal-producing, resource-rich counties, coal-producing counties experience 6% and 4% drops in employment and wages, respectively, during this period. Economic mobility and access to banking services significantly moderate these real effects, suggesting a potential role for finance to shape the industrial and economic changes associated with climate transitions. (JEL G20, G50, J61, Q55, Q58) Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract We find that firms’ financial resources play an important role in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. We study nursing homes—whose residents account for over one-third of all U.S. COVID-19 deaths—at a time when investment in risk mitigation was costly and critical. Facilities with less liquidity and those experiencing more severe cash flow shocks had more cases of COVID-19. The importance of cash flow is further supported by tests exploiting state-level variation in Medicaid reimbursement expansion. Evidence on personal protective equipment supplies suggests a lack of financial resources leads to lower investment in risk mitigation. (JEL G30, G32, I10) Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Abstract We show there is a much stronger negative, dynamic relation between changes in economic uncertainty and Treasury yields over weaker economic times since at least 1990. We document this economic-state variation in uncertainty-yield dynamics for weekly and monthly change horizons, for nominal yields and real-yield proxies, for multiple economic-state identification methods, and for different economic uncertainty metrics. We present additional findings that suggest short-term fluctuations in precautionary-savings and consumption-smoothing forces are more impactful on interest rate dynamics during weaker economic times, especially relying on surveys of expected economic growth and inflation. Received February 8, 2019; editorial decision August 24, 2020 by Editor Nikolai Roussanov. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.