Knowledge that Transforms

This note demonstrates that the Baxter-King (1999) filter, and in general any bandpass filter, does not isolate the cycle in an unobserved-components model with a stochastic trend. The first difference of the trend passes through the filter, and as a result, the spectral properties of the filtered series depend on the trend in the unfiltered series. It is demonstrated that for postwar U.S. real GDP, the spectral properties of the BK-filtered series are primarily to due to the stochastic trend in output.

This note derives simply computed closed-form expressions for the average treatment effect, the effect of treatment on the treated, the local average treatment effect, and the marginal treatment effect in a latent-variable framework for both normal and nonnormal models. Asymptotic standard errors for versions of these parameters that average over observed characteristics are also obtained. The performances of the derived estimators are also evaluated in Monte Carlo experiments under correct specification and misspecification.

We formulate and test a hypothesis for the dramatic restructuring that the plant breeding and seed industry has recently undergone: the reorganization can be explained in part by the desire to exploit complementarities between intellectual assets needed to create genetically modified organisms. This hypothesis is tested using data on agricultural biotechnology patents, notices for field tests of genetically modified organisms, and firm characteristics. The presence of complementarities is identified with a positive covariance in the unexplained variation of asset holdings. Results indicate that coordination of complementary assets has increased under the consolidation of the industry.

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on price stickiness by documenting a high rate of nominal rigidity among housing rents in the United States between 1974 and 1981. Of the units studied, 29% had no change in nominal rents from year to year. The incidence was much higher (a) in years and cities with a low median nominal rent growth rate, and among (b) units whose tenants continued from the previous year and (c) units in small buildings. A little less than half of the nominal rigidity can be ascribed to grid pricing. Possible explanations, as well as the likely distributive and allocative implications, are discussed.

The objective of this paper is to investigate if and how capital adjustment departs from the smooth pattern implied by standard model based on convex adjustment costs. Using Norwegian micro data, we start by documenting the intermittent and lumpy nature of investment rates. We then present two pieces of econometric evidence on these issues. First, we estimate a discrete hazard model to determine the probability of having an episode of high investment, conditional on the length of the interval from the last high-investment episode. Second, we estimate a switching regression model that allows for the response of the investment rate to fundamentals to differ across regimes. In both cases we investigate the aggregate implications of our results.

May 01 2003 Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCs Luis Servén Luis Servén Search for other works by this author on: This Site Google Scholar Author and Article Information Luis Servén Online ISSN: 1530-9142 Print ISSN: 0034-6535 © 2003 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology2003 The Review of Economics and Statistics (2003) 85 (2): 492. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465303765299954 Cite Icon Cite Permissions Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Peer Review Search Site Citation Luis Servén; Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics 2003; 85 (2): 492. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/003465303765299954 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentAll JournalsThe Review of Economics and Statistics Search Advanced Search This content is only available as a PDF. © 2003 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology2003 Article PDF first page preview Close Modal You do not currently have access to this content.

This paper presents new measures of final goods trade protection in eight developed countries. The analysis exploits detailed, comprehensive, and careful price comparisons to derive estimates that, it is argued, reliably capture all kinds of barriers. The results show extensive protection. Japan's average tariff equivalent is 57%, those of the European countries range from 48% to 55%, and that of the United States is lowest, at 12%. An applied general-equilibrium analysis of this protection is conducted. The results include the following: Japan's barriers impose large costs on itself; Japanese and U.S. barriers greatly burden poorer countries; the United States would benefit significantly from multilateral, but not unilateral, opening.

This paper develops a correlated probit model to describe dichotomous choices that may contain a public-goods component or some other forms of interdependency. The key contribution of the paper is to formulate tests for interdependent behavior among agents. In particular, we examine the decisions by nations whether or not to ratify the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Specifically, we reject free riding as a motive for not ratifying the Protocol, and we find little evidence that individual nations were influenced by the behavior of their largest trading partners. Hence, the data suggest that, with respect to the Montreal Protocol, most nations acted without regard for the actions of other nations.

Volatility spillovers of the DM/$ and ¥/$ exchange rate across regional markets are examined using the integrated volatility of high-frequency data. An analysis of quoting patterns reveals five distinct regions: Asia, Asia-Europe overlap, Europe, Europe-America overlap, and America. After reviewing theoretical foundations for persistence of volatility in dealership markets, regional volatility models are constructed where volatility in one region is a function of yesterday's volatility in that region (“heat-wave effect”) and volatility in other regions (“meteor-shower effect”). Evidence of statistically significant effects is found for both own-region and interregional spillovers, but the economic significance of own-region spillovers indicates that heat waves are more important than meteor showers.

Teen out-of-wedlock mothers have lower education and earnings than do peers who have children later. This study uses the National Educational Longitudinal Survey of 1988 to examine the extent to which the apparent effects of out-of-wedlock teen childbearing are due to preexisting disadvantages of the young women and their families. We use a novel method that matches teen mothers to similar young women in their junior high school (that is, prior to pregnancy). We find that out-of-wedlock fertility reduces education substantially, although far less than the cross-sectional comparisons of means suggest. We further find that this effect is larger among those with lower probabilities of having a child out of wedlock.