Knowledge that Transforms

Using a novel scanner data and difference-in-differences strategy, we assess how consumers respond to a large-scale tax reform in India that introduces exogenous variations in tax rate changes at the product level. We show evidence of a strong and persistent spending response to tax rate changes. The response is highly asymmetrical, with consumers responding significantly more strongly to tax rate increases than to decreases. We find empirical support for both intertemporal and cross-product substitution effects: Households (1) shift consumption forward preceding a tax increase and (2) substitute one good for another and alter their relative weight in the consumption basket to avoid paying higher tax. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that consumers with more personal shopping experience exhibit stronger consumption responses. Our findings have empirical implications for the efficacy of tax policy initiatives.

Administrative barriers to social insurance program take-up are pervasive, including in subsidized health insurance. We conducted a randomized controlled trial with Massachusetts' Affordable Care Act marketplace to reduce these barriers and other behavioral frictions. We find that a “check the box” streamlined enrollment intervention raises enrollment by 10.5%, more than personalized reminder letters (7.6% increase) or generic reminder letters (4.3% increase). Effects are concentrated among individuals eligible for zero-premium plans, who faced no further administrative burdens of setting up payments. Producing this enrollment effect through premium reduction would cost about $7 million in subsidies, highlighting the importance of these burdens.

How do preferences for neighborhood amenities vary by income? Using data on over 100 million visits to 1.4 million establishments, I estimate a discrete choice model of demand for restaurants, shops, personal services, and entertainment places. While preferences for specific establishments often vary by income, preferences for neighborhoods' overall amenity access are highly aligned. The primary determinant is density: dense urban areas have sufficient variety to offer broad appeal. For incumbents of gentrifying neighborhoods, tailoring amenities to higher-income entrants has only modest welfare effects relative to the effects of potential displacement to cheaper neighborhoods with worse access to amenities.

Waiting times for mental health treatment have been increasing in many countries. Using administrative data on all inhabitants of the Netherlands and exploiting exogenous variation at the municipality level, I find that these waiting times have substantial repercussions on labor market outcomes for at least eight years after the start of treatment. A one-month (0.5 SD) increase in waiting time decreases the probability of employment by two percentage points. Vulnerable groups with lower educational attainment or a migration background are especially affected given that the impact of waiting time is larger for them and their average waiting time is longer.

Lacking lifetime income data, most intergenerational mobility estimates are subject to lifecycle bias. Using long income series from Sweden and the US, we illustrate that standard correction methods struggle to account for one important property of income processes: children from affluent families experience faster income growth, even conditional on their own characteristics. We propose a lifecycle estimator that captures this pattern and performs well across different settings. We apply the estimator to study mobility trends, including for recent cohorts that could not be considered in prior work. Despite rising income inequality, intergenerational mobility remained largely stable in both countries.

Using administrative data on the Chinese National College Entrance Examination, we study how left-digit bias affects college applications. We find strong discontinuities in students’ admission outcomes at ten-point thresholds. Students with scores just below multiples of 10 make more conservative college application choices that place them into less selective colleges and majors. In contrast, students who score at or just above multiples of 10 aim at and achieve higher but are at greater risk of overshooting. The discontinuity reveals that despite the educational and labor market consequences, students’ self-evaluation based on exam scores is subject to information-processing heuristics.

We study the effect of raising the level and transparency of financial incentives offered to local agents for acquiring clients of a new banking product on take-up. We find that paying agents higher incentives increases take-up and usage, but only when the incentives are unknown to prospective clients. When disclosed, higher incentives have no effect on take-up and usage, despite greater agent effort. This is due to the financial incentives sending a negative signal to potential clients about the reliability and trustworthiness of the product. Hence, when designing incentives, organizations should consider both their level and transparency.

We analyze attention to personal finances using a high-frequency panel of bank data, including information on logins. We document a number of robust patterns. Relative to their personal histories, individuals pay more attention when holding more cash and liquidity and when receiving income. In contrast, attention decreases discretely as bank account balances go from positive to negative and then decreases further as overdraft debt increases. We conclude that Ostrich effects in a personal finance context, i.e., the avoidance of obtaining information on everyday personal finances, is a widespread phenomenon and explore a number of explanations for our findings.

This paper revisits one of the rare success stories in global environmental cooperation: the Montreal Protocol and the phase-out of ozone-depleting substances. I show that the protocol increased science and innovation on alternatives to ozone-depleting substances and argue that agreements can indeed be useful in solving global public goods problems. This contrasts with game-theoretical predictions that agreements occur only when costs to the players are low and with the often-heard narrative that substitutes were readily available. I reconcile theory and empirics by discussing the role of induced innovation in models of environmental agreements.

This paper shows that replacing paper-based records with electronic medical records (EMRs) improves HIV patient retention and prevents AIDS deaths in the low-income country of Malawi. An event study of 106 HIV clinics shows a 28 percent reduction in annual deaths five years after EMR implementation, with the greatest impact on children. Improvements in health outcomes appear due to efficiency gains, rather than to changes in the medical care provided at visits. These efficiency gains allow clinics to better manage patient data, trace lapsed patients and return them into care, and adapt to higher patient volumes over time.