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Dynamic risk management

Journal of Financial Economics 2014 111(2), 271-296
Both financing and risk management involve promises to pay that need to be collateralized, resulting in a financing versus risk management trade-off. We study this trade-off in a dynamic model of commodity price risk management and show that risk management is limited and that more financially constrained firms hedge less or not at all. We show that these predictions are consistent with the evidence using panel data for fuel price risk management by airlines. More constrained airlines hedge less both in the cross section and within airlines over time. Risk management drops substantially as airlines approach distress and recovers only slowly after airlines enter distress.

How to Define Illegal Price Manipulation

American Economic Review 2008 98(2), 274-279
The term “illegal price manipulation ” is diffi-cult to define. Current U.S. law does not explic-itly define it. The finance and economics litera-ture uses the term “manipulation ” in an impre-cise manner. This paper proposes that a trading strategy not be classified as “illegal price manip-ulation ” unless the violator’s intent is to pursue a scheme that undermines economic efficiency both by making prices less accurate as signals for efficient resource allocation and by making mar-kets less liquid for risk transfer. Since price ef-fects are market-wide, we treat the terms “price manipulation ” and “market manipulation ” as synonyms. Our definition applies equally to fi-nancial and commodities markets.

Collateral, Risk Management, and the Distribution of Debt Capacity

Journal of Finance 2010 65(6), 2293-2322
ABSTRACT Collateral constraints imply that financing and risk management are fundamentally linked. The opportunity cost of engaging in risk management and conserving debt capacity to hedge future financing needs is forgone current investment, and is higher for more productive and less well‐capitalized firms. More constrained firms engage in less risk management and may exhaust their debt capacity and abstain from risk management, consistent with empirical evidence and in contrast to received theory. When cash flows are low, such firms may be unable to seize investment opportunities and be forced to downsize. Consequently, capital may be less productively deployed in downturns.

Market Valuation and Merger Waves

Journal of Finance 2004 59(6), 2685-2718 open access
ABSTRACT Does valuation affect mergers? Data suggest that periods of stock merger activity are correlated with high market valuations. The naïve explanation that overvalued bidders wish to use stock is incomplete because targets should not be eager to accept stock. However, we show that potential market value deviations from fundamental values on both sides of the transaction can rationally lead to a correlation between stock merger activity and market valuation. Merger waves and waves of cash and stock purchases can be rationally driven by periods of over‐ and undervaluation of the stock market. Thus, valuation fundamentally impacts mergers.

Corporate Reorganizations and Non‐Cash Auctions

Journal of Finance 2000 55(4), 1807-1849
This paper extends the theory of non‐cash auctions by considering the revenue and efficiency of using different securities. Research on bankruptcy and privatization suggests using non‐cash auctions to increase cash‐constrained bidder participation. We examine this proposal and demonstrate that securities may lead to higher revenue. However, bidders pool unless bids include debt, which results in possible repossession by the seller. This suggests all‐equity outcomes are unlikely and explains the high debt of reorganized firms. Securities also inefficiently determine bidders' incentive contracts and the firm's capital structure. Therefore, we recommend a new cash auction for an incentive contract.

Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others

Journal of Finance 1996
We analyze a multi-period model of trading with differentially informed traders, liquidity traders, and a market maker. Each informed trader's initial information is a noisy estimate of the long-term value of the asset, and the different signals received by informed traders can have a variety of correlation structures. With this setup, informed traders not only compete with each other for trading profits, they also learn about other traders' signals from the observed order flow. Our work suggests that the initial correlation among the informed traders' signals has a significant effect on the informed traders' profits and the informativeness of prices.

Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others

Journal of Finance 1996 51(4), 1437-1478
ABSTRACT We analyze a multi‐period model of trading with differentially informed traders, liquidity traders, and a market maker. Each informed trader's initial information is a noisy estimate of the long‐term value of the asset, and the different signals received by informed traders can have a variety of correlation structures. With this setup, informed traders not only compete with each other for trading profits, they also learn about other traders' signals from the observed order flow. Our work suggests that the initial correlation among the informed traders' signals has a significant effect on the informed traders' profits and the informativeness of prices.

Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models

Journal of Finance 1993 48(1), 187-211
ABSTRACT Patterns in stock market trading volume, trading costs, and return volatility are examined using New York Stock Exchange data from 1988. Intraday test results indicate that, for actively traded firms trading volume, adverse selection costs, and return volatility are higher in the first half‐hour of the day. This evidence is inconsistent with the Admati and Pfleiderer (1988) model which predicts that trading costs are low when volume and return volatility are high. Interday test results show that, for actively traded firms, trading volume is low and adverse selection costs are high on Monday, which is consistent with the predictions of the Foster and Viswanathan (1990) model.

Public trust, the law, and financial investment☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2009 92(3), 321-341
How does trust evolve in markets? What is the optimal level of regulation and how does this affect trust formation and economic growth? In a theoretical model, we analyze these questions, given the value of social capital and the potential for growth in the market. When social capital is valuable, regulation and trustfulness are substitutes. In this case, regulation may cause lower aggregate investment and decreased economic growth. When the social capital is less valuable, regulation and trustfulness may be complements. In the paper, we analyze the optimal level of regulation and highlight the novel predictions of the model.