We study how firms' inventory holdings are affected by natural disasters. Building on the premise that managers often make decisions in line with the availability heuristic, we investigate whether managers increase inventory holdings in response to heightened disaster risk perceptions and the need to hedge against inventory shortages. Through a battery of tests, we show that the occurrence of disasters in neighboring counties triggers inventory stockpiling, an effect that is unlikely to be driven by the real disaster disruptions. Our results also indicate that inventory stockpiling is likely inconsistent with a rational expectations equilibrium. Collectively, our results highlight another undesirable consequence of natural disasters and warn about supply chain implications due to increased climate ambiguity. Data Availability: All the data used in this study are publicly available.

We exploit a regulatory change to examine whether bank regulator strictness is affected when regulators no longer rely on external assurance. In the absence of external assurance, we find that banks report higher nonaccrual loans, higher troubled debt restructurings, and both a timelier loan loss provision and higher quality allowance for loan loss reserve. Further, regulators spend more days performing targeted bank examinations for banks affected by the regulatory change. We do not find evidence of operational deterioration, but rather the findings are consistent with increased regulator strictness over the reporting of problem assets, particularly during targeted examinations. Overall, our results suggest that regulators become stricter when they can no longer rely on the work of external auditors and that third-party assurance is an imperfect substitute for direct regulatory monitoring. Data Availability: Bank regulatory rating and examination dates are confidential and were obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. All other data are available from the public sources cited in the text.

This study investigates the effect of firms' adoption of SFAS No. 131 segment disclosure rules on the stock market's ability to predict the firms' earnings, as captured by the forward earnings response coefficient (FERC). The FERC is the association between current-year returns and next-year earnings. SFAS No. 131, effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 1997, arguably increased both the quantity and quality of segment disclosure. Consistent with the standard's intended qualitative effects, pre-131 multi-segment firms experienced a significant increase in FERC after adopting SFAS No. 131. Consistent with the standard's intended quantitative effects, many pre-131 single-segment firms began disclosing multiple segments, and those that did experienced an increase in FERC. However, pre-131 single-segment firms that remained single segment (i.e., were unaffected by SFAS No. 131) had no change in FERC, indicating that the increase in FERC for 131-affected firms is not due to some other event concurrent to the adoption of SFAS No. 131. These results are robust under numerous procedures that control for characteristics of the sample firms and their earnings, providing strong evidence that SFAS No. 131 resulted in an increase in stock price informativeness for affected firms. Thus, we provide the first empirical price-based evidence that SFAS No. 131 provided more information (about future earnings) to the market, as the standard's proponents have suggested.

We examine whether mandating banks to issue subordinated debt would enhance market monitoring and control risk taking. To evaluate whether subordinated debt enhances risk monitoring, we extract the credit‐spread curve for each banking firm in our sample and examine whether changes in credit spreads reflect changes in bank risk variables, after controlling for changes in market and liquidity variables. We do not find strong and consistent evidence that they do. To evaluate whether subordinated debt controls risk taking, we examine whether the first issue of subordinated debt changes the risk‐taking behavior of a bank. We find that it does not.

We propose a novel identification strategy to isolate exogenous immigration shocks across US counties, by interacting quasi-random variations in the composition of ancestry across counties with the contemporaneous inflow of migrants from different countries. We show a positive causal impact of immigration on local innovation and wages at the five-year horizon. The positive dynamic impact of immigration on innovation and wages dominates the short-run negative impact of increased labor supply. A structural estimation of a model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the United States since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5 percent.

This paper presents a list of the top 20 articles published in the American Economic Review during its first 100 years. This list was assembled in honor of the AER's one-hundredth anniversary by a group of distinguished economists at the request of AER's editor. A brief description accompanies the citations of each article.

In the coming year 1979, is it possible to achieve a 5 percent unemployment rate and keep annual inflation down to 4 percent? To raise this question in terms of a particular econometric model, we ask whether there exist values of the policy instruments which will give rise to solutions of 5 and 4 percent, respectively, for unemployment and inflation. What is the most favorable tradeoff relationship between inflation and unemployment implicit in an econometric model of a national economy? In this paper, we wish to point out that for many econometric models actually in use, the tradeoff relationship is not rigid, but can be shifted toward the origin (but usually not all the way to the origin!) by suitable government policies. Accordingly, we suggest that the tradeoff relationship implicit in an econometric model be defined as the set of points in the unemployment-inflation diagram which cannot be dominated. We will explain the circumstances under which there exists such a southwestern boundary for the points depicting the unemploymentinflation combinations that are achievable according to a given model. We will propose a systematic way to locate points on this boundary and demonstrate that our algorithm works. Stimulated by and based upon A. W. Phillips' original paper on the relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates, numerous studies have appeared to refine, respecify, and estimate structural equations explaining the rates of change in the wage rates, the price level, unemployment and related variables. It soon became apparent that these studies, though useful, may not be sufficient for ascertaining the tradeoff relationship between unemployment and inflation. If unemployment and inflation are viewed as two of the many endogenous variables which are jointly determined by a system of simultaneous econometric equations, their relationship has to be derived by solving a whole system using alternative values for the policy variables subject to government control. The approach of deriving the unemployment-inflation tradeoff by varying the policy variables and solving for these two endogenous variables in an econometric model has been adopted by

This paper develops a satellite account for the US health sector and measures productivity growth in health care for the elderly population between 1999 and 2012. We measure the change in medical spending and health outcomes for a comprehensive set of 80 conditions. Medical care has positive productivity growth over the time period, with aggregate productivity growth of 1.5% per year. However, there is significant heterogeneity in productivity growth. Care for cardiovascular disease has had very high productivity growth. In contrast, care for people with musculoskeletal conditions has been costly but has not led to improved outcomes.

Leading financial scholars present essays examining the performance of the basic financial functions underlying global financial systems: payments, lending and investing, pooling funds, allocating risk, providing information, and dealing with incentive issues - with particular emphasis on how their performance is changing and implications for the future.

We study China’s export growth to the United States from 1950 to 2008, using a structural model to disentangle the effects of past tariff changes from the effects of changes in expectations of future tariffs. We find that the effects of China’s 1980 Normal Trade Relations (NTR) grant lasted past its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the likelihood of losing NTR status decreased significantly during 1986–92 but changed little thereafter. US manufacturing employment trends support our findings: industries more exposed to the 1980 reform have shed workers steadily since then without acceleration around China’s WTO accession.