Knowledge that Transforms

We use a systems-based econometric method to show that classic and market-based tournament models are empirically distinguishable since the role of risk differs across these models. Implementing the method using a large, Finnish, worker-firm matched panel, we find support for classic tournaments given that promotions depend on relative performance, the firm’s wage structure is convex, promotion probabilities are decreasing in the number of competitors, performance is increasing in the wage spread, and workers and firms adjust their choice variables in opposite directions when the variance of the stochastic component of worker performance changes.

Chile is unusual in having long-term experience with nationwide school vouchers. A key criticism of school voucher systems is that they make it easier for private schools to attract better teachers to the detriment of public schools. This paper uses longitudinal data from Chile to estimate a discrete choice dynamic programming (DCDP) model of teacher and nonteacher labor supply decisions and to explore how wage policies affect the composition of the teacher labor force in public and private schools. In the model, individuals first decide whether to get a teaching degree and then choose annually from among five work/home sector alternatives. Empirical results show that private voucher schools attract better teachers than public schools. However, the existence of the private voucher sector also draws higher-productivity individuals into the teaching profession.

Rising costs of public employee pension plans have caused fiscal stress in many cities and states and have led to calls for reform. To assess the economic consequences of plan changes, it is important to have reliable statistical models of employee retirement behavior. The authors estimate a structural model of teacher retirement using Missouri administrative panel data. A Stock-Wise option value model provides a good fit to the data and predicts well out-of-sample on the effects of pension enhancements during the 1990s. The structural model is used to simulate the effect of alternatives to the current defined benefit plan.

We show that officer training during the Swedish military service has a strong positive effect on the probability of attaining a managerial position later in life. The most intense type of officer training increases the probability of becoming a civilian manager by about 5 percentage points, or 75%. Officer training also increases educational attainment post–military service. We argue that the effect on civilian leadership could be due to the acquisition of leadership-specific skills during the military service, and we present suggestive evidence related to alternative mechanisms, such as signaling, networks, and training unrelated to leadership.

This paper looks at the surprisingly different labor market performance of the United States, Canada, Germany, and several other OECD countries during and after the Great Recession of 2008–9. A first important finding is that the large employment swings in the construction sector linked to the boom and bust in US housing markets is an important factor behind the different labor market performances of the three countries. We also find that cross-country differences among OECD countries are consistent with a conventional Okun relationship linking gross domestic product growth to employment performance.

The paper investigates the link between the overexposure of African immigrants to unemployment in France and their underrepresentation in jobs in contact with customers. We build a two-sector matching model with ethnic sector–specific preferences, economy-wide employer discrimination, and customer discrimination in jobs in contact with customers. The outcomes of the model allow us to build a test of ethnic discrimination in general and customer discrimination in particular. We run the test on French individual data in a cross section of local labor markets (employment areas). Our results show both ethnic and customer discrimination in the French labor market.

We consider the link between parents’ influence over the preferences of children, parental investments in children’s human capital, and children’s support of elderly parents. It may pay for parents to spend resources to “manipulate” children’s preferences in order to induce them to support their parents in old age. Since parents invest more in children when they expect greater support, manipulation of child preferences may end up helping children and parents. A new result, which we call the “Rotten Parent Theorem,” demonstrates that if children are altruistic, then even selfish parents will make the optimal investment in their children’s human capital.

We treat rising inequality as an equilibrium outcome in which human capital investment fails to keep pace with rising demand for skills. Investment affects skill supply and prices on three margins: the type of human capital in which to invest, how much to acquire, and the intensity of use. The latter two represent the intensive margins of human capital acquisition and utilization. These choices are substitutes for the creation of new skilled workers, yet they are complementary with each other, magnifying inequality. When skill-biased technical change drives economic growth, greater inequality reduces growth.

We study employment reallocation across employers through the lens ofa dynamic job ladder model. Workers always agree on a ranking ofemployers at all points in time and search for better jobs both offand on the job. A parsimonious version of the model fits well the timeseries of gross worker flows by employer size from newly available USdata from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Focusing on the US experience in and around the Great Recession, our evidence indicates that the job ladder stopped working then and has not fully resumed yet.

Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) awards rise during recessions. If marginal applicants are able to work but unable to find jobs, countercyclical Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefit extensions may reduce SSDI uptake. Exploiting UI extensions in the Great Recession as a source of variation, we find no indication that expiration of UI benefits causes SSDI applications and can rule out effects of meaningful magnitude. A supplementary analysis finds little overlap between the two programs' recipient populations: only 28% of SSDI awardees had any labor force attachment in the prior calendar year, and of those, only 4% received UI.