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The Labor Market Impact of Immigration: A Quasi-Experiment Exploiting Immigrant Location Rules in Germany

Journal of Labor Economics 2012 30(1), 175-213
With the fall of the Berlin Wall, ethnic Germans living in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union were given the opportunity to migrate to Germany. Within 15 years, 2.8 million individuals had done so. Upon arrival, these immigrants were exogenously allocated to different regions to ensure an even distribution across the country. Their inflow can therefore be seen as a quasi-experiment of immigration. I analyze the effect of these inflows on skill-specific employment rates and wages. The results indicate a displacement effect of 3.1 unemployed workers for every 10 immigrants that find a job, but no effect on relative wages.

Industrial Espionage and Productivity

American Economic Review 2020 110(4), 1055-1103 open access
In this paper, we investigate the economic returns to industrial espionage by linking information from East Germany's foreign intelligence service to sector-specific gaps in total factor productivity (TFP) between West and East Germany. Based on a dataset that comprises the entire flow of information provided by East German informants over the period 1970–1989, we document a significant narrowing of sectoral West-to-East TFP gaps as a result of East Germany's industrial espionage. This central finding holds across a wide range of specifications and is robust to the inclusion of several alternative proxies for technology transfer. We further demonstrate that the economic returns to industrial espionage are primarily driven by relatively few high quality pieces of information and particularly strong in sectors that were closer to the West German technological frontier. Based on our findings, we estimate that the average TFP gap between West and East Germany at the end of the Cold War would have been 6.3 percentage points larger had the East not engaged in industrial espionage.

How Do Industries and Firms Respond to Changes in Local Labor Supply?

Journal of Labor Economics 2015 33(3), 711-750
This paper analyzes how changes in the skill mix of local labor supply are absorbed by the economy, distinguishing between three adjustment mechanisms: wages, expansion in size of those production units using the more abundant skill group more intensively, and more intensive use of the more abundant skill group within production units. We contribute to the literature by analyzing these adjustments on the firm rather than industry level, using German administrative data. We show that most adjustments occur within firms through changes in relative factor intensities and that firms entering and exiting the market are an important additional absorption mechanism.

Occupational Recognition and Immigrant Labor Market Outcomes

Journal of Labor Economics 2021 39(2), 497-525
We analyze how the formal recognition of foreign qualifications affects immigrants’ labor market outcomes. The empirical analysis is based on a novel German data set that links respondents’ survey information to their administrative records, allowing us to observe immigrants at monthly intervals before, during, and after their application for occupational recognition. We find that 3 years after obtaining recognition, immigrants earn 19.8% higher wages and are 24.5 percentage points more likely to be employed than immigrants in the control group. We further document that occupational recognition leads to full convergence of immigrants’ earnings to those of their native counterparts.

Referral-based Job Search Networks

Review of Economic Studies 2016 83(2), 514-546 open access
This article derives novel testable implications of referral-based job search networks in which employees provide employers with information about potential new hires that they otherwise would not have. Using comprehensive matched employer–employee data covering the entire workforce in one large metropolitan labour market combined with unique survey data linked to administrative records, we provide evidence that workers earn higher wages and are less inclined to leave their firms if they have obtained their job through a referral. These effects are particularly strong at the beginning of the employment relationship and decline with tenure in the firm, suggesting that firms and workers learn about workers' productivity over time. Overall, our findings imply that job search networks help to reduce informational deficiencies in the labour market and lead to productivity gains for workers and firms.

Labor Market Competition and the Assimilation of Immigrants

American Economic Review 2026 116(5), 1682-1722 open access
This paper shows that the wage assimilation of immigrants is the result of the intricate interplay between individual skill accumulation and dynamic labor market equilibrium effects. When immigrants and natives are imperfect substitutes, rising immigrant inflows widen the wage gap between them. Using a production function framework in which workers supply both general and host-country-specific skills, we show that this labor market competition channel explains about one-fifth of the large increase in the average immigrant–native wage gap across arrival cohorts in the United States since the 1960s. The results further reveal substantial heterogeneity across different groups of immigrants. (JEL J22, J23, J24, J31, J61, K37, O33)