Abstract We develop a new methodology to estimate subjective beliefs from hypothetical-choice data. Our identification approach is based on the novel insight that by varying the amount of information on future realizations of stochastic variables, discrete-choice experiments can identify not only preferences but also subjective beliefs. We formally prove this result in a general setting and apply it to design a strategic survey instrument to measure Rajasthani parents’ subjective beliefs over the joint distribution of girls’ age of marriage, education, and marriage match quality. Our approach allows us to quantify the importance of perceived marriage market returns to education and youth, and perform various counterfactual simulation exercises. We find that eliminating the perceived marriage market return to education causes a 60% drop in the number of girls still in school at age 16, and almost none continue their education by age 18. Responses to our strategic survey instrument allow us accurately to predict realized schooling trajectories in follow-up data we collect from the same sample five years after our experimental data collection.

Abstract If overcrowding harms health care quality, the impacts of encouraging more people to use services are not obvious. Impacts will depend on whether marginal entrants benefit and whether they benefit enough to offset the congestion externalities imposed on inframarginal users. We develop a general-equilibrium model that formalizes these ideas. We examine them empirically by studying JSY, a program in India that paid women to give birth in medical facilities. We find evidence that JSY increased perinatal mortality in areas with low health-system capacity, was particularly harmful in more-complex births, reduced the quality of facilities' postnatal care, and generated harmful spillovers onto other services.

Globally, access to preschool has increased dramatically but its quality is often poor. We evaluate two interventions aimed at improving the quality of public preschools in Colombia. The first, designed by the government and rolled-out nationwide, provided preschools with significant extra funding, mainly earmarked for hiring teaching assistants (TAs). The second, for a small additional cost, also offered training for existing teachers. We show that the first intervention did not improve child development, while the second led to significant improvements in children’s cognitive development, especially for those from more disadvantaged backgrounds. We argue these dramatic differences can be explained by the two interventions having different impacts on teachers’ behavior. The first led teachers to reduce the time they spent in the classroom, including on learning activities. The addition of the training offset this adverse effect of TA provision on teachers’ learning activities and improved the quality of teaching.