This paper illustrates how non-contractual legal rules sometimes alleviate contractual incompleteness. A serious incompleteness in debt contracts is the borrower's ability to fraudulently transfer assets to third parties, rendering the borrower insolvent. The incompleteness arises because contractual remedies are ineffective against third-party transferees who are not bound by the debt contract, while the borrower has no assets to recover. Fraudulent conveyance law is a non-contractual legal rule allowing recovery against these transferees. This increases debt capacity most dramatically for borrowers with highly liquid assets. Without non-contractual legal rules, high liquidation value implies low debt capacity. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G32; G38.

We estimate sequentially outcome probabilities and expected payoffs associated with first, second, and final bids in a large sample of tender offer contests. Rival bids arrive quickly and produce large bid jumps. Greater bidder toeholds (prebid ownership of target shares) reduce the probability of competition and target resistance and are associated with both lower bid premiums and lower prebid target stock price runups. The expected payoff to target shareholders is increasing in the bid premium and in the probability of competition, but decreasing in the bidder's toehold. The initial bidder's expected payoff is significantly positive in the "rival-bidder-win" outcome, in part reflecting gains from the pending toehold sale. Despite these dramatic toehold effects, only half of the initial bidders acquire toeholds.

This paper reports the results of an experiment that examines how incentive-based compensation contracts compare to flat-wage compensation contracts in motivating individual learning and performance. I use a multiperiod cognitive task where the accounting system generates information (feedback) that has both a contracting role and a belief-revision role. The results suggest that incentives enhance performance and the rate of improvement in performance by increasing both: (1) the amount of time participants devoted to the task, and (2) participants' analysis and use of information. Further, I find evidence that incentives improve performance only after considerable feedback and experience, which may help explain why many prior one-shot decision-making experiments show no incentive effects. Collectively, the results suggest that incentives induce individuals to work longer and smarter, thereby increasing the likelihood that they will develop and use the innovative strategies frequently required to perform well in complex judgment tasks and learning situations.

In this paper we analyze the theoretical implications of sorting data into groups and then running asset pricing tests within each group. We show that the way this procedure is implemented introduces a bias in favor of rejecting the model under consideration. By simply picking enough groups to sort into, the true asset pricing model can be shown to have no explanatory power within each group.

We examine valuation effects of announcements of seasoned equity issuance and assess the impact of the choice of flotation method in the U.K. Rights offerings are predominant, but in 1986, British firms gained the flexibility to conduct placings, which are comparable to U.S. firm commitment offerings. A placing is a fixed-price bought deal that increases ownership dispersion. Placings generate significantly positive share price effects, whereas rights offerings have large negative valuation effects that become more adverse after 1985. We conclude that the option to conduct placings enhances the ability of firms to signal their quality and to use a seasoned equity offering to reduce ownership concentration.

Within the past two years, important advances have been made in modeling credit risk at the portfolio level. Practitioners and policy makers have invested in implementing and exploring a variety of new models individually. Less progress has been made, however, with comparative analyses. Direct comparison often is not straightforward, because the different models may be presented within rather different mathematical frameworks. This paper offers a comparative anatomy of two especially influential benchmarks for credit risk models, the RiskMetrics Group's CreditMetrics and Credit Suisse Financial Product's CreditRisk+. We show that, despite differences on the surface, the underlying mathematical structures are similar. The structural parallels provide intuition for the relationship between the two models and allow us to describe quite precisely where the models differ in functional form, distributional assumptions, and reliance on approximation formulae. We then design simulation exercises which evaluate the effect of each of these differences individually.

We estimate sequentially outcome probabilities and expected payoffs associated with first, second, and final bids in a large sample of tender offer contests. Rival bids arrive quickly and produce large bid jumps. Greater bidder toeholds (prebid ownership of target shares) reduce the probability of competition and target resistance and are associated with both lower bid premiums and lower prebid target stock price runups. The expected payoff to target shareholders is increasing in the bid premium and in the probability of competition, but decreasing in the bidder's toehold. The initial bidder's expected payoff is significantly positive in the “rival-bidder-win” outcome, in part reflecting gains from the pending toehold sale. Despite these dramatic toehold effects, only half of the initial bidders acquire toeholds.

Many recent empirical studies have concluded that analysts' earnings forecasts are optimistic on average. In this paper, we attempt to undo the effect of one potential source of optimistic bias in analysts' earnings forecasts. Assuming forecasts come from a truncated normal distribution, we estimate the “true” population mean using maximum likelihood. We find that our estimates of earnings are more accurate and less biased than standard measures of sample mean and median. However, we do not find a closer relationship between excess market returns and forecast errors from our maximum likelihood estimate than from the sample mean. This may suggest that the market does not fully incorporate analysts' incentives in generating expectations about future earnings.