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Warp speed price moves: Jumps after earnings announcements

Journal of Financial Economics 2025 167, 104010 open access
Corporate earnings announcements unpack large bundles of public information that should, in efficient markets, trigger jumps in stock prices. Testing this implication is difficult in practice, as it requires noisy high-frequency data from after-hours markets, where most earnings announcements are released. Using a unique dataset and a new microstructure noise-robust jump test, we show that earnings announcements almost always induce jumps in the stock price of announcing firms. They also significantly raise the probability of price co-jumps in non-announcing firms and the market. We find that returns from a post-announcement trading strategy are consistent with efficient price formation after 2016.

The incremental information in the yield curve about future interest rate risk

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 155, 106973 open access
Using high-frequency intraday futures prices to measure yield volatility at selected maturities, we find that daily yield curves carry incremental information about future interest rate risk at the long end, relative to that contained in the time series of historical volatilities. Some of the information in the yield curves is not captured by standard affine models. Our results point to the existence of an unspanned volatility factor. Both time series and yield curve based forecasts provide utility to a risk averse investor, relative to a random walk. Information from the two sources can be combined to enhance yield volatility forecasting performance.