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Productivity and Price Trends in Construction Since 1947

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1965 47(4), 406
EITTLE is known about the real output, productivity, and price trends in the construction Nevertheless, there exists an undercurrent of feeling that the performance of this giant industry has lagged considerably behind the American economy as a whole. Economists have tended to shy away from this area of research because the available statistics have been viewed as inappropriate or unreliable. Consequently, the field has been pre-empted, more or less, by the popular press which has propagated a most distinct notion. The industry, in the words of one writer, is noted for its incredible inefficiency (particularly home building). As an explanation of . why new homes cost too much, he stated that . home builders are forced to use wasteful and obsolete techniques and materials, do little or no research [and] are hobbled by a maze of outdated building codes.' To the extent that such an opinion is held within the economics profession it usually can be traced to the Department of Commerce's construction composite cost index.2 Since World War II the composite has risen faster than most other well known price indexes and the implication has been drawn that much of the rise has been due to inefficiency. However, the composite is essentially a simple inputcost index 3 and no inference about productivity can be logically deduced from it. To the knowledge of this writer, only a few economists have published any research on real output, productivity, or prices in construction. Most of these have been interested in construction only incidentally, as one sector to be integrated into the whole. Their estimates relating to construction can be summarized as follows: Schultze found that construction prices rose 53.7 per cent over the decade beginning in 1947.4 For the same period, the composite rose 47.5 per cent. Alterman and Jacobs estimated that the average annual change in real product between 1947 and 1955 was 5.6 per cent and 2.5 per cent came from an increase in real product per man-hour.5 This figure is surprisingly large when contrasted with the popular view. Yet it appears from their work that construction productivity lagged considerably behind the average for the economy and even behind total services. Kendrick deflated value added by an output deflator closely akin to the composite to yield an index of real output and estimated that real output per man-hour rose at an average rate of 3.9 per cent between 1948 and 1953,6 but productivity had not advanced between 1909 and 1948. Haber and Levinson, writing in the early fifties, thought that productivity had been increasing by about 1.5 per cent per year in residential construction and two per cent in industrial and commercial building.7 They attributed this low rate to the . economic characteristics of the industry. The most recent estimate is that of Domar, et al.8

A Growth Model Forecast of Faculty Size and Salaries in United States Higher Education

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1965 47(2), 191
ONE of the principal inputs in the process of producing higher education is past higher education. In order to turn out individuals with university degrees, it is necessary that some of the past recipients of such degrees shall have chosen to join university faculties. The recognition that university graduates are the output of higher education, that faculties are the capital stock, and that the hiring of recent graduates to faculties is the investment process, permits the future growth of higher education in the United States to be analyzed within a Harrod growth framework. Although other concepts are needed even at a high level of abstraction, the capital-output ratio (i.e., the faculty-student ratio) and the investment-output ratio (i.e., the ratio of increments of higher education faculties to past recipients of degrees), are central to this analysis of higher education. The essential difference between this paper and typical growth models is that output in higher education is here treated as a parameter rather than a variable. It is possible that the pressures of rapidly increasing applications to institutions of higher education might result largely in increasing rejections, but the more likely course is the expansion of existing universities and the establishment of new ones.' The purpose of this paper is to show the kinds of pressure and the extent of the pressure which may appear in American higher education as a result of various plausible enrollment rates between now and 1980.2 In the growth model of this paper and the forecasts that result from it will be seen the tremendous strain which the next decade will probably place upon American universities and colleges. What is interesting is not, of course, the existence of this strain long ago realized by educators but the measures of its depth and duration. If the faculty investment rate is not increased, faculty-student ratios will very probably fall by 23% (from .089 to .069) between 1957-1958 and 1967-1968. But the very process of producing this vastly increased amount of higher education produces a greatly increased potential later rise of faculties. After 1967-1968, again if the faculty investment rate remains unchanged, faculty-student ratios will begin to rise almost as dramatically as they fell and will re-attain levels above .08 by 19791980. The strain on faculties during the 1960's tends automatically to reduce this strain in the 1970's and possibly to produce slack thereafter. If faculty salaries adjust to prevent, at least partially, these strains and slacks, faculty pay may nearly double during the next two decades, but the rise will not be smooth. Salaries may rise by 7 % per annum during the 1960's but only by 1% per annum in the 1970's. The financial future of those who profess in higher education may be neither so stable nor so bright as is commonly believed.

Per Capita Consumption and Growth

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1965 79(1), 52
Introduction, 52. — I. The CPCS model of growth, 54. — II. Growth in the labor-surplus type of underdeveloped economy, 60. — III. Revision of the consumption standard, 62. — IV. The long-run growth target, 65. — V. The average propensity to save and the dynamic production efficiency, 68. — VI. Growth under imperfect knowledge, 70.

Reporting Joint-Venture Corporations.

The Accounting Review 1965 40(4), 795-804
Abstract The article focuses on the use of joint-venture corporations which are described as corporations, the capital stocks of which are wholly owned by two or more other corporations. Although the emergence of the joint-venture corporation has been gradual and in several types of business, there is evidence of concentration in a few industries, like, the chemical, steel, and petroleum industries. The impact of joint-venture corporations on the financial positions of their parent companies is approached by first determining the types of relationship often existing between joint-venture corporations and their parents. It was found that in many cases joint-venture corporations depend on their parents for financial assistance, the parents actively manage the ventures, the products of many ventures are homogeneous with those of their parent companies, and contractual obligations often assure continuity of control by the parents. The article recommends that current accounting standards be revised to require that each parent's share of all its joint-venture corporations be combined with that parent's balance sheet.

The Teachers' Clinic.

The Accounting Review 1965 40(4), 863-867
Abstract The article presents the results of a recent survey conducted among schools which have made use of television in their accounting classes. The sole purpose of the survey was to provide a useful guide in deciding what course of action to recommend in regard to television instruction in accounting at schools. The report is designed to provide a general impression of the effectiveness of televised instruction, and a starting point for those who wish to investigate further in this regard. A majority of the schools surveyed were favorably impressed. Television for the instruction in accounting appears most applicable to the first-year course. With the use of student assistants during TV lecture periods and lab sessions, the student-teacher relationship appeared adequate. The use of uniform examinations for all TV course sections was overwhelmingly preferred to other examination methods. Some amount of released time is necessary for those preparing and conducting TV classes. Some additional types of visual aids, such as a VuGraph, are necessary and desirable. Maintaining normal class size as opposed to the lecture hall type of class was generally preferred.

Accounting for Business Combinations.

The Accounting Review 1965 40(2), 377-381
Abstract This article focuses on the accounting criteria for judging the economic realities and the intent of the parties to a business combination. The present accounting criteria for judging the economic realities and the intent of the parties to a business combination are inadequate. The reduced importance of the relative-size criterion has resulted in an indiscriminate use of the pooling concept. Effective control over the assets, management, and ownership of the succeeding entity is more important in the determination of economic reality than is a theory based upon a proportional continuation of the former interests. The purchase concept adequately conforms to the requirements of accounting regarding asset realization and objectivity. A merger proposal is merely a specialized form of capital-budgeting decision. Consequently, all alternatives to the merger proposal should be considered. If a firm wishes to maximize conventionally reported earnings, the pooling basis may be misleading and result in the acceptance of undesirable investment proposals.