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The Shape of Production Functions and the Direction of Technical Change

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2005 120(2), 517-549
This paper views the standard production function in macroeconomics as a reduced form and derives its properties from microfoundations. The shape of this production function is governed by the distribution of ideas. If that distribution is Pareto, then two results obtain: the global production function is Cobb-Douglas, and technical change in the long run is labor-augmenting. Kortum showed that Pareto distributions are necessary if search-based idea models are to exhibit steady-state growth. Here we show that this same assumption delivers the additional results about the shape of the production function and the direction of technical change

Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1995 110(2), 495-525 open access
According to endogenous growth theory, permanent changes in certain policy variables have permanent effects on the rate of economic growth. Empirically, however, U. S. growth rates exhibit no large persistent changes. Therefore, the determinants of long-run growth highlighted by a specific growth model must similarly exhibit no large persistent changes, or the persistent movement in these variables must be offsetting. Otherwise, the growth model is inconsistent with time series evidence. This paper argues that many AK-style models and R&D-based models of endogenous growth are rejected by this criterion. The rejection of the R&D-based models is particularly strong.

Measuring the Social Return to R&D

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1998 113(4), 1119-1135
Is there too much or too little research and development (R&D)? In this paper we bridge the gap between the recent growth literature and the empirical productivity literature. We derive in a growth model the relationship between the social rate of return to R&D and the coefficient estimates of the empirical literature and show that these estimates represent a lower bound. Furthermore, our analytic framework provides a direct mapping from the rate of return to the degree of underinvestment in research. Conservative estimates suggest that optimal R&D investment is at least two to four times actual investment.

The Productivity Effects of Employee Stock-Ownership Plans and Bonuses: Evidence from Japanese Panel Data

American Economic Review 1995 85(3), 391-414
We report the first results for Japanese firms on the effects of employee stock-ownership plans (ESOP's) and bonuses by estimating production functions using new panel data. We find that the introduction of an ESOP will lead to a 4-5-percent increase in productivity; this productivity payoff takes 3-4 years. There is a modest productivity gain from the bonus system. We also find evidence that the productivity effect of bonuses is enhanced by the existence of ESOP's, suggesting that ESOP's may create a climate conducive to profit-sharing by enhancing long-term commitment and peer monitoring.