This paper analyzes the role of variable capital-utilization rates in propagating shocks over the business cycle. The model on which our analysis is based treats variable capital-utilization rates as a form of factor-hoarding. We argue that variable capital-utilization rates are a quantitatively important source of propagation to business-cycle shocks. With this additional source of propagation, the volatility of exogenous technology shocks needed to explain the observed variability in aggregate U.S. output is significantly reduced relative to standard real-business-cycle models.

Abstract If the asset market is complete, then the difference between foreign and domestic agents’ log intertemporal marginal rates of substitution (IMRSs) equals the log change in the real exchange rate. This equation is frequently used to argue that changes in real exchange rates reflect differences between agents’ required compensation for exposure to asset return uncertainty. We show that the relative returns on frictionlessly traded assets are only reflected in the common component of agents’ IMRSs, not in differences. Instead, when this equation does offer insights, frictions in the goods market are the source of economic distinction between agents. Received December 10, 2013; editorial decision November 5, 2018 by Editor Geert Bekaert. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Lustig and Verdelhan (2007) argue that the excess returns to borrowing US dollars and lending in foreign currency “compensate US investors for taking on more US consumption growth risk,” yet the stochastic discount factor corresponding to their benchmark model is approximately uncorrelated with the returns they study. Hence, one cannot reject the null hypothesis that their model explains none of the cross sectional variation of the expected returns. Given this finding, and other evidence, I argue that the forward premium puzzle remains a puzzle. JEL: C58, E21, F31, G11, G12

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Solow residual based measures of technology shocks to labor hoarding behavior. Using a structural model of labor hoarding and the identifying restriction that innovations to technology shocks are orthogonal to innovations in government consumption, we estimate the fraction of the variability of the Solow residual that is due to technology shocks. Our results support the view that a significant proportion of movements in the Solow residual are artifacts of labor hoarding behavior. Specifically, we estimate that the variance of innovations to technology is roughly 50 percent less than that implied by standard real business cycle models. In addition, our results suggest that existing real business cycle studies substantially overstate the extent to which technology shocks account for the variability of postwar aggregate U.S. output.

[We study the properties of the carry trade, a currency speculation strategy in which an investor borrows low-interest-rate currencies and lends high-interest-rate currencies. This strategy generates payoffs that are on average large and uncorrelated with traditional risk factors. We argue that these payoffs reflect a peso problem. The underlying peso event features high values of the stochastic discount factor rather than very large negative payoffs.]

In Burnside and Dollar (2000) we used standard regression techniques from the growth literature to measure the effect of foreign aid on growth. The main finding in our paper was that the effect of foreign aid on growth depended on the macroeconomic policies of recipient countries. In this issue, William Easterly et al. (2004), challenge the robustness of our result to new data. Before commenting on their findings it is useful to review the basis of our original findings. Our paper focused on three versions of a panel growth regression, estimated using data for 51 countries, and six four-year periods, from 1970 to 1993. These regressions may be summarized as:

This paper uses a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid, economic policies, and growth of per capita GDP. We find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal, monetary, and trade policies but has little effect in the presence of poor policies. Good policies are ones that are themselves important for growth. The quality of policy has only a small impact on the allocation of aid. Our results suggest that aid would be more effective if it were more systematically conditioned on good policy. (JEL F350, O230, O400)

Abstract We propose a novel pricing factor for currency returns motivated by the market microstructure literature. Our factor aggregates order flow data to provide a measure of buying and selling pressure related to conventional currency trading strategies. It successfully prices the cross-section of currency returns sorted on the basis of forward discount and momentum. The association between our factor and currency returns differs according to the customer segment of the foreign exchange market. In particular, it appears that financial customers are risk-takers in the market, while nonfinancial customers serve as liquidity providers.

We study the properties of the carry trade, a currency speculation strategy in which an investor borrows low-interest-rate currencies and lends high-interest-rate currencies. This strategy generates payoffs that are on average large and uncorrelated with traditional risk factors. We argue that these payoffs reflect a peso problem. The underlying peso event features high values of the stochastic discount factor rather than very large negative payoffs.

The carry trade strategy involves selling forward currencies that are at a forward premium and buying forward currencies that are at a forward discount. We compare the payoffs to the carry trade applied to two different portfolios. The first portfolio consists exclusively of developed country currencies. The second portfolio includes the currencies of both developed countries and emerging markets. Our main empirical findings are as follows. First, including emerging market currencies in our portfolio substantially increases the Sharpe ratio associated with the carry trade. Second, bid-ask spreads are two to four times larger in emerging markets than in developed countries. Third and most dramatically, the payoffs to the carry trade for both portfolios are uncorrelated with returns to the U.S. stock market.