Résumé. L'auteur entend déterminer laquelle parmi trois possibilités de présentation de l'information relative aux gisements pétroliers et gaziers dans le rapport annuel—coûts d'origine capitalisés, quantités ou flux monétaires actualisés—a un contenu marginal en information, par rapport au bénéfice par action. Le contenu en information est défini comme étant la mesure dans laquelle l'option retenue pour présenter les gisements tient compte de l'évolution du prix des actions ordinaires. L'auteur a recours à l'analyse de régression multiple afin d'évaluer dans quelle mesure chacune des trois options de présentation de l'information relative aux gisements est indicative du rendement des actions ordinaires, compte tenu de l'information livrée par un indicateur du bénéfice par action. Il recueille dans les rapports annuels de 67 sociétés canadiennes d'exploration et de mise en valeur du pétrole et du gaz naturel l'information relative à chaque année de la période s'échelonnant de 1983 à 1987. Les résultats de l'étude prouvent que le bénéfice par action présente un certain contenu en information. Pour l'ensemble de la période de cinq ans, l'étude prouve également que les coûts capitalisés, les quantités des réserves et les flux monétaires actualisés présentent un contenu marginal en information; les résultats ne sont cependant pas constants lorsqu'on analyse une à une les années de la période, quelle que soit la forme de présentation utilisée.

The purpose of this paper is to determine which of three alternative annual report disclosures of oil and gas reserves, namely historic capitalized costs, quantities, or discounted cash flows, contributes information content incremental to that provided by earnings per share. Information content is defined as the ability of a reserves disclosure to account for changes in common stock prices. Multiple regression analysis was used to evaluate the extent to which each of the three alternative reserves disclosures account for common stock returns after first recognizing the information provided by an earnings per share variable. The annual reports of 67 Canadian oil and gas exploration and development corporations were used to gather the data for each of the years 1983 to 1987. The results indicate that the earnings per share provides some significant evidence of information content. The capitalized costs disclosure, the quantities disclosure, and the discounted cash flows disclosure provide significant evidence of incremental information content in a pooled analysis of the five‐year period; however, the results for any one disclosure method are not consistent throughout the analyses of each of the five years.

A model with private information that supports conventional arguments for a government monopoly in supplying circulating media of exchange is constructed. The model also yields rate-of-return and velocity predictions which are consistent with observations from free banking regimes and fiat money regimes. In a laissezfaire banking equilibrium, fiat money is (essentially) not valued, and the resulting allocation is not Pareto optimal. However, if private agents are restricted from issuing circulating notes, there exists an equilibrium with valued fiat money that Pareto dominates the laissez-faire equilibrium and is Pareto optimal within a restricted class of allocations. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 020, 310.

This paper attempts to distinguish empirically real versus nominal sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates. The distinction is obtained by imposing the following restriction on the bivariate vector autoregression of real and nominal exchange rates over the current flexible rate period: nominal shocks are required to have no permanent effect on the level of the real exchange rate. Given this identification scheme, the author analyzes the dynamic effects and relative importance of real and nominal shocks with regards to exchange rates. The findings indicate that real shocks dominate nominal shocks for both exchange rate series over short and long frequencies.

Evidence on costs and factor substitution is presented for a sample of local fire departments in New York State. The results suggest that fire service production does not fit either Leontief, Cobb-Douglas, or CES technology. In addition, exogenous socioeconomic variables are found to significantly affect public-sector costs and the estimates of factor price elasticities. The findings of relatively low factor demand and substitution elasticities suggest that local governments may have limited flexibility in adjusting their production of fire services to minimize the impact of rising factor prices.

David M. Garman, Daniel J. Richards; Wage-Price Flexibility, Market Power, and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages, 1959–1980*, The Quarterly Journal of Ec

[This study examines participative budgeting in the context of the psychology of risk. As Young (1985) and Waller (1988) report, there is some preliminary evidence that risk-averse workers create more budgetary slack than risk-neutral ones. They show that "truth inducing incentive schemes" (e.g., Soviet incentive schemes; see Weitzman 1976) reduce budgetary slack for risk-neutral subjects but not for risk-averse subjects. If this is true, it means that resource allocations within organizations are mediated by perceptions of risk. Young (1985) and Waller (1988) define risk preference as a dispositional variable, which presumes that it is a stable personal trait, a latent variable, traditionally inferred from observed behavior of risk propensity in such settings like lotteries. This study tests whether risk preferences are domain-specific; that is, latent risk preferences translate into differing manifest risk preferences according to the context. Domain-specific risk preference can be understood as a manifest psychological variable that may well be the result of the combination of latent risk propensity and the situation. Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory (1979) suggests that manifest risk preferences depend upon whether the subject frames his or her task in the context of gain or loss prospects, where gains and losses are defined in relation to a neutral reference point. If risk preferences are domain-specific, then past studies' suggestion that incentive schemes should be designed in consideration of dispositional, or latent, risk preferences needs to be reexamined (Waller 1988; Kaplan 1982). The question before this study is: If subordinates are influenced by prior period performance in setting current period budgets for themselves, will that influence take the form predicted by prospect theory and thus lead to riskier preferences (tight budgets) when the subordinates perceive themselves in a losing situation? This is an important question considering Young's (1985) alluding to the possibility that inducing subordinates to less risk-averse behavior may be a way to favor tight budgetary standards and reduce slack. This prediction is consistent with prospect theory's implication that losers who are slow to adjust their reference point act in a more risk-seeking manner. Thus, the induction of losing prospects might be a way to minimize budgetary slack. An additional concern in this study is to jointly test domain-specific risk preferences and dispositions toward risk as influences over budgetary decisions. Whereas prospect theory explains risk preferences as domain-specific contingencies, other theories construe risk preferences as dispositional. It is likely that both domain-specific and dispositional factors influence budgetary decisions. This study deploys a conventional lottery procedure to elicit and test dispositions toward risk. An experiment simulating the public accountants' budgeting of billable hours was designed to test the hypothesis that subject preference for tight or safe budget behavior depends on the performance of coworkers and domain-specific risk preferences. The hypotheses were tested in an experiment employing 81 students. The results generally support the view that subordinates' risk preferences are influenced by a situation-dependent variable. The reversal of risk preferences around a neutral reference point is statistically significant for both dispositionally risk-averse and dispositionally risk-seeking subjects. The dispositional variable also contributes to the explanation of variations in subjects' manifest risk preferences. Thus the propensity to induce budgetary slack seems to be a joint function of situations and dispositions.]

Examines participative budgeting in the context of the psychology of risk. Theoretical background on risk preferences; Empirical evidence of domain-specific risk preferences; Study design; Dispositional risk attitude measurement; Preference ratings of risk-averse versus risk-taking groups; Limitations of the study.

Reviews the book `Marking to Market: Accounting for Marketable Securities in the Financial Services Industry,' by Richard Macve and Jonathan Jackson.