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Capital, corporate income taxes, and catastrophe insurance

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2003 12(4), 365-389
We provide estimates of the equity capital needed and the resulting tax costs incurred when supplying catastrophe insurance/reinsurance using a partial equilibrium model that incorporates a specific loss distribution for US catastrophe losses. After consideration of insurer investment in tax-exempt securities, tax loss carry-back/forward provisions, and personal taxes, our results imply that the tax costs of equity finance alone have a substantial effect on the cost of supplying catastrophe reinsurance. These results help explain a variety of industry developments that reduce tax costs. Also, when coupled with non-tax costs of capital, these results help explain the limited scope of catastrophe insurance/reinsurance.

Correlations between Brothers and Neighboring Boys in Their Adult Earnings: The Importance of Being Urban

Journal of Labor Economics 2003 21(4), 831-855
A comparison of the correlations between brothers and neighboring boys in their adult earnings suggests that the earnings resemblance between brothers stems more from growing up in the same family than from growing up in the same neighborhood. Much of the neighbor correlation is explicable in terms of the large earnings differential between urban and nonurban areas combined with the strength with which urbanicity of childhood neighborhood predicts urbanicity of adult location. This pattern is subject to a variety of interpretations, but it is quite different from the usual view of neighborhood effects.

The Role of Information and Social Interactions in Retirement Plan Decisions: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2003 118(3), 815-842
This paper analyzes a randomized experiment to shed light on the role of information and social interactions in employees' decisions to enroll in a Tax Deferred Account (TDA) retirement plan within a large university. The experiment encouraged a random sample of employees in a subset of departments to attend a benefits information fair organized by the university, by promising a monetary reward for attendance. The experiment multiplied by more than five the attendance rate of these treated individuals (relative to controls), and tripled that of untreated individuals within departments where some individuals were treated. TDA enrollment five and eleven months after the fair was significantly higher in departments where some individuals were treated than in departments where nobody was treated. However, the effect on TDA enrollment is almost as large for individuals in treated departments who did not receive the encouragement as for those who did. We provide three interpretations—differential treatment effects, social network effects, and motivational reward effects—to account for these results.

Unemployment as a Social Norm: Psychological Evidence from Panel Data

Journal of Labor Economics 2003 21(2), 323-351
This article proposes a formal model of migration in which workers are heterogeneous and markets are stochastically correlated. We derive and characterize the optimal migration pattern of a family. We show that migration can take place even when migrants earn less abroad and, surprisingly, when earnings in the foreign country are riskier for every member of the family. Moreover, it may well be an optimal arrangement to have only dependents migrate, thus rationalizing the recent dependent-oriented migration flows from places like Hong Kong and Taiwan. We provide some evidence in support of our theory.

The Impact of Protective Measures for Female Workers

Journal of Labor Economics 2003 21(3), 533-555
Policies designed to protect female workers have controversial effects on labor market outcomes, both in theory and in practice. The analysis uses repeated cross‐sections of household survey data for Taiwan to estimate the impact of working‐hours restrictions and maternity benefits. Differential coverage across industrial sectors and demographic groups provides a unique opportunity to identify the impact of both policies in a single natural experiment framework. While working‐hours restrictions have a negative impact on women's actual hours worked and employment, maternity benefits increase these labor inputs, implying that women value the opportunity to return to jobs they might otherwise have to leave.

What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules

Journal of Economic Literature 2003
It is argued that inflation targeting is best understood as a commitment to a targeting rule rather than an instrument rule, either a general targeting rule (explicit objectives for monetary policy) or a specific targeting rule (a criterion for the forecasts of the target variables to be fulfilled), essentially the equality of the marginal rates of transformation and substitution between the target variables. Targeting rules allow the use of judgment and extra model information, are more robust and easier to verify than optimal instrument rules, and can bring the economy close to the socially optimal equilibrium.

What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules

Journal of Economic Literature 2003 41(2), 426-477 open access
It is argued that inflation targeting is best understood as a commitment to a targeting rule rather than an instrument rule, either a general targeting rule (explicit objectives for monetary policy) or a specific targeting rule (a criterion for (the forecasts of) the target variables to be fulfilled), essentially the equality of the marginal rates of transformation and substitution between the target variables. Targeting rules allow the use of judgment and extra-model information, are more robust and easier to verify than optimal instrument rules, and they can nevertheless bring the economy close to the socially optimal equilibrium.

What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules

Journal of Economic Literature 2003
It is argued that inflation targeting is best understood as a commitment to a targeting rule rather than an instrument rule, either a general targeting rule (explicit objectives for monetary policy) or a specific targeting rule (a criterion for (the forecasts of) the target variables to be fulfilled), essentially the equality of the marginal rates of transformation and substitution between the target variables.Targeting rules allow the use of judgment and extra-model information, are more robust and easier to verify than optimal instrument rules, and they can nevertheless bring the economy close to the socially optimal equilibrium.

Measurement Error in the Consumer Price Index: Where Do We Stand?

Journal of Economic Literature 2003 41(1), 159-201
We survey the evidence bearing on measurement error in the CPI and provide our best estimate of the magnitude of CPI bias. We also identify a weighting bias in the CPI that has not been previously discussed in the literature. In total, we estimate that the CPI overstates the change in the cost of living by about 0.6 percentage point per year, with a confidence interval that ranges from 0.1 to 1.2 percentage points. Roughly half of this bias is accounted for by the CPI's inability to fully capture the welfare improvement from quality change and the introduction of new items. Our bias estimate is smaller than that found in several earlier studies, in part because the BLS has recently made a variety of improvements to its procedures; our study highlights several potential areas for further improvement.