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Impact of macroeconomic news on metal futures

Journal of Banking & Finance 2012 36(1), 51-65
This paper uses intra-day data for the period 2002 through 2008 to examine the intensity, direction, and speed of impact of US macroeconomic news announcements on the return, volatility and trading volume of three important commodities – gold, silver and copper futures. We find that the response of metal futures to economic news surprises is both swift and significant, with the 8:30am set of announcements – in particular, nonfarm payrolls and durable goods orders – having the largest impact. Furthermore, announcements that reflect an unexpected improvement in the economy tend to have a negative impact on gold and silver prices; however, they tend to have a positive effect on copper prices. In comparison, realized volatility and volume for all three metals are positively influenced by economic news. Finally, there is evidence that several news announcements exert an asymmetric impact on market activity variables.

Short-term options: Clienteles, market segmentation, and event trading

Journal of Banking & Finance 2015 61, 237-250
We compare clientele and information share in weekly- (Weeklys) and monthly-expiring options (Monthlys) on the S&P 500 index. Striking dissimilarities between the two instruments are found, most apparent being the much smaller trade size and substantially higher implied volatility in Weeklys, consistent with both speculation and event trading. Additionally, the price discovery contribution of Weeklys, albeit modest when compared to the underlying index itself, is substantially larger than that of Monthlys. The cumulative evidence points to an increasingly segmented options market. Thus, studies employing only standard options to investigate price discovery will likely underestimate the informational role of options.

Risk-shifting, equity risk, and the distress puzzle

Journal of Corporate Finance 2017 44, 275-288 open access
Higher default probabilities are associated with lower future stock returns. The anomaly cannot be explained by strategic shareholder actions, traditional risk factors, characteristics, or mispricing, but, instead, is consistent with a risk-shifting hypothesis. Consistent with the risk-shifting hypothesis, we find that distressed firms tend to overinvest, destroy value, and exhaust their cash flows. Effects are concentrated in firms with wide credit spreads, firms with no convertible debt, and in cases where CEOs receive above-average equity-based compensation. As default risk rises, credit spreads rise, equity betas fall, and equity returns fall.