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Natural Disaster Effects on Popular Sentiment Toward Finance

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(7), 2584-2604
We use a text-based measure of popular sentiment toward finance to study how finance sentiment responds to rare historical disasters and to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Finance sentiment declines after epidemics and earthquakes but rises following severe droughts, floods, and landslides. These heterogeneous effects suggest finance sentiment responds differently to the realization of insured versus uninsured risks. Finance sentiment declines at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but recovers in countries that experienced high stock markets returns and that responded with large fiscal spending. Finance sentiment seems to depend on the insurance provided by private markets and by public finance.

Does Finance Benefit Society? A Language Embedding Approach

Review of Financial Studies 2026 39(5), 1227-1266
We measure popular sentiment toward finance by applying a large language model to millions of books published in eight countries over hundreds of years. We extensively validate this measure both internally and externally. We document persistent differences in finance sentiment across countries despite ample time-series variation. Books written in the languages of more capitalist countries discuss finance in a more positive context. Finance sentiment is correlated with survey-based measures of financial market participation and income inequality. Finance sentiment declines one year before rather than after financial crises. Positive shocks to finance sentiment are followed by higher output and credit growth.