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Note on Square-Root Charts

Econometrica 1946 14(4), 313
F. R. MACAULAY' and other writers2 have noted a tendency for changes in the square roots of common-stock prices to be constant regardless of price level. This phenomenon has naturally suggested that when such prices are represented graphically the charts be designed so that vertical distances from the origin are proportional to the square roots of the prices indicated in the margins. There is some reason to believe that charts of this kind might also be useful in plotting other kinds of data. Assume that n sales are distributed at random over 1/p firms during some interval of time, and that u1, u2, *, u1/, are the actual numbers of sales made by the different firms F1, F2, , Fil, Then, a priori, the probability that a particular firm will make one of these sales is p, and the mean and variance of the u's will tend to be

IPO Pricing and Allocation: A Survey of the Views of Institutional Investors

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(4), 1477-1504
[Despite the central importance of investors to all initial public offering (IPO) theories, relatively little is known about their role in practice. This article is based on a survey of how institutional investors assess IPOs, what information they provide to the investment banking syndicate, and the factors they believe influence allocations. We find that investor characteristics, in particular brokerage relationships with the bookrunner, are perceived to be the most important factors influencing allocations, which supports the view that IPO allocations are part of implicit quid pro quo deals with investment banks. The survey raises doubts as to the extent of information production or revelation]

Institutional Investor Expectations, Manager Performance, and Fund Flows

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(6), 2755-2777 open access
Using survey data, we analyze institutional investors’ expectations about the future performance of fund managers and the impact of those expectations on asset allocation decisions. We find that institutional investors allocate funds mainly on the basis of fund managers’ past performance and of investment consultants’ recommendations, but not because they extrapolate their expectations from these. This suggests that institutional investors base their investment decisions on the most defensible variables at their disposal and supports the existence of agency considerations in their decision making.

IPO Pricing and Allocation: A Survey of the Views of Institutional Investors

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(4), 1477-1504
Despite the central importance of investors to all initial public offering (IPO) theories, relatively little is known about their role in practice. This article is based on a survey of how institutional investors assess IPOs, what information they provide to the investment banking syndicate, and the factors they believe influence allocations. We find that investor characteristics, in particular brokerage relationships with the bookrunner, are perceived to be the most important factors influencing allocations, which supports the view that IPO allocations are part of implicit quid pro quo deals with investment banks. The survey raises doubts as to the extent of information production or revelation.

Measuring the Added Value of Stock Recommendations

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2020 55(6), 1915-1945
Using data from the Stockholm Stock Exchange (SSE), we study the value added by (as distinct from the abnormal returns to) analysts’ recommendations. Recommending brokers’ clients trade profitably around positive recommendations at the expense of other brokers’ clients. Significant profits come from transactions before recommendation dates. Value added is greatest for upgrades to large caps, and largely insignificant for downgrades and recommendations of small caps, despite high abnormal returns. Brokers making profitable recommendations generate abnormally high commission income, recouping much of their clients’ abnormal profits, and their abnormal commission income varies in line with the abnormal profits for their clients.

Bids and Allocations in European IPO Bookbuilding

Journal of Finance 2004 59(5), 2309-2338
ABSTRACT This paper uses evidence from a data set of 27 European IPOs to analyze how investors bid and the factors that influence their allocations. We also make use of a unique ranking of investor quality, associated with the likelihood of flipping the IPO. We find that investors perceived to be long‐term holders of the stock are consistently favored in allocation and in out‐turn profits. In contrast to Cornelli and Goldreich (2001) , we find little evidence that more informative bids receive larger allocations or higher profits. Our results cast doubt upon the extent of information production during the bookbuilding period.

Best Buys and Own Brands: Investment Platforms’ Recommendations of Mutual Funds

Review of Financial Studies 2021 34(1), 227-263
Individuals increasingly buy mutual funds via online platforms, whose “best-buy” recommendations heavily influence flows. As intermediaries of mutual funds, platforms provide none of the unobservable interaction or intangible benefits of brokers, and so allow clean tests of the determinants, influence, and value of their fund recommendations. Using unique U.K. data, we find that platforms favor “own-brand” funds and those paying them a higher commission share. Investors discount own-brand recommendations, but not those paying high commission shares (which were not observable in the United Kingdom). A regulatory ban on commission sharing lowered costs and improved the informativeness of platform recommendations.

Quid Pro Quo? What Factors Influence IPO Allocations to Investors?

Journal of Finance 2018 73(5), 2303-2341
ABSTRACT Using data from all of the leading international investment banks on 220 initial public offerings (IPOs) raising $160 billion between January 2010 and May 2015, we test the determinants of IPO allocations. We compare investors’ IPO allocations with proxies for their information production during bookbuilding and the broking (and other) revenues they generate for bookrunners. We find evidence consistent with information revelation theories. We also find strong support for the existence of a quid pro quo whereby broking revenues are a significant determinant of investors’ IPO allocations and profits. The quid pro quo remains when we control for unobserved investor characteristics and investor‐bank relationships.

Why Don't U.S. Issuers Demand European Fees for IPOs?

Journal of Finance 2011 66(6), 2055-2082 open access
ABSTRACT We compare fees charged by investment banks for conducting IPOs in the United States and Europe. In recent years, the “7% solution,” as documented by Chen and Ritter (2000) , has become even more prevalent in the United States, and is now the norm for IPOs raising up to $250 million. The same banks dominate both markets, but European IPO fees are roughly three percentage points lower, are much more variable, and have been falling. We review explanations for the gap in spreads and find the evidence consistent with strategic pricing. U.S. issuers could have saved over $1 billion a year by paying European fees.